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The CEO of vaccine developer Covid-19 Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) might be getting a little ahead of himself. In an Endpoints interview the day before the company’s research and development day, Stéphane Bancel suggested that Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech could in the not-too-distant future have a research program that rivals pharmaceutical giants Gilead. Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) and Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN).
“Assuming we launch 1273 (the company’s Covid vaccine) … I think the next 12 months after that will be the biggest turning point in Moderna’s history. Period,” Bancel said. “We have 20 drugs in clinical development today. Could we, in 18 months, 24 months from now have 40? 50? I think it’s possible.”
Pretty heady stuff for a company that has done little since its launch a decade ago. Certainly, until recently, its performance hadn’t captivated investors. The stock had languished since the company went public in December 2018, and only rose to its current price of just under $ 70 on the news of its Covid vaccine.
Unsurprisingly, Bancel has high aspirations for Moderna, which has yet to turn a profit. And there are no guarantees that this will be the case. Despite the company’s coronavirus vaccine closing in on phase 3 data and a possible green light from regulators, the landscape is littered with promising pharmaceuticals that failed to cross the finish line. Additionally, Moderna has been behind Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) in signing up for its phase 3 trial, which has hit 30,000. Bancel has also been unwilling to take risks like Pifizer, which has set itself the highly optimistic goal of having a vaccine by October.
Bancel told Endpoints that the Covid vaccine could generate revenue in the billions for Moderna in 2021, a treasure trove of cash that it called “unheard of for a biotech company that just went commercial.
In its early days, Moderna hoped to apply its mRNA technology in many different areas, but it focused on infectious diseases because success there would be easier to demonstrate. Based on its promising results with its Covid vaccine, Moderna plans to start working against the flu, which is one of the least effective vaccines in the world.
During the R&D day, the company also announced positive results from a phase 2 study of its cytomegalovirus vaccine. This vaccine was the main product that the company was developing before the coronavirus appeared. Bancel has previously said a
The CMV vaccine could represent a $ 2 billion to $ 5 billion market due to the
potentially harmful impact on children.
The CEO would like to apply the company’s technology to cancer, but that seems to be a stretch at this point.
“I think cancer is a totally different problem,” Pardi Norbert, an mRNA researcher at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, told Endpoints. It is “a different type of immune response.”
Moderna’s big plans could fall apart if its Covid-19 vaccine doesn’t live up to expectations. If that turns out to be the case, the company will be farther back than it was a year ago, the Endpoints article said. It is a result that Bancel seems to be well aware of.
“We have said this from day one: it cannot be a single pharmaceutical company, it can be zero, if nothing works and we fail, or it will be a lot.”
Disclosure: The author has a position at Pfizer, Amgen, and Gilead.
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About the Author:
Barry cohen
Barry Cohen has nearly 40 years of communications and marketing experience, most in senior positions at large international healthcare companies, including Abbott Laboratories and Bayer Inc.
He has contributed to several financial websites, writing primarily about the stocks of healthcare companies.
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