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TOKYO – This year will be pivotal to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s hopes of remaining in power as he reflects on the timing of a general election as he leads Japan’s response to the coronavirus and moves forward with plans to hold the postponed Tokyo Olympics. 2020 in the summer.
With his support ratings declining amid dissatisfaction with his government’s response to the pandemic and a series of currency scandals within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party making headlines, he can’t afford any missteps.
Suga’s window to dissolve the House of Representatives for the general elections is gradually closing: his current term as LDP leader ends at the end of September and the four-year term for members of the lower house ends on October 21.
Having taken office following the sudden resignation of his predecessor Shinzo Abe for health reasons last September, it will be Suga’s first national vote and a chance to win a strong mandate from the voters.
Suga was very popular at first, having earned the affection of the public as the son of a strawberry farmer from Akita prefecture who eats pancakes and who, unlike many of his fellow legislators, does not come from a political dynasty.
Trademark policies such as investing in renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions and pressuring telecommunications companies to cut mobile phone rates were well received.
A Kyodo News poll conducted just after Suga’s inauguration showed support for his cabinet of 66.4 percent. Abe, who had been haunted by favoritism and money scandals, had a 36% rating before announcing his intention to resign.
But Suga is now facing criticism over a third wave of coronavirus cases that appears to have been exacerbated by his drive to restart economic activity. A record 4,520 new infections were reported nationwide on Thursday, bringing Japan’s cumulative total to over 240,000.
Despite the dire situation, the government delayed until the last minute by announcing the suspension of its “Go To Travel” subsidy program, aimed at boosting domestic tourism, during the New Year holidays. He has not declared another state of emergency even amid warnings that the healthcare system is on the brink of collapse.
“Mr. Suga chose to prioritize the economy, and although the economy is really important, right now the public is more concerned about taking action to combat the coronavirus,” said Hitoshi Komiya, professor of Japanese political history at Aoyama Gakuin University.
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Suga’s cabinet approval rating has fallen to 50.3 percent, according to the latest Kyodo News poll conducted in early December. Several other media outlets have it at around 40 percent.
While still above 30 percent, the “danger zone” where an administration is at risk of premature death represents a headache for the prime minister as he sees the best time for a general election.
Suga has promised to control the coronavirus before dissolving the lower house. That could hinge on the launch of vaccines, which government officials said could start in February at the earliest with front-line healthcare workers.
Naoto Nonaka, a professor of comparative politics at Gakushuin University, says the best scenario for the prime minister to remain in power is to distribute vaccines quickly, get the economy working again, host a safe Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, and successful, and then call a general election.
“The question is, will things go that well? (Lawmakers) get nervous when they know a general election is coming. If Suga’s supporting ratings drop beyond a certain point, he will surely face calls within the LDP for him to resign. “, Nonaka. said.
Suga will also have to defend himself against criticism from opposition parties about Abe’s spending of political funds on dinners attended by his supporters, and allegations that two former LDP agriculture ministers received bribes from a plant growing company. eggs.
Suga served under Abe for nearly eight years as chief cabinet secretary and constantly defended him until the former prime minister apologized for making false statements in parliament about dinner expenses late last month.
The prime minister is especially vulnerable because he does not have factional support within the PLD and therefore must have public opinion firmly on his side if he is to survive, Komiya said.
But communication has never been Suga’s strength: His defining trait in his previous role as chief cabinet secretary, the government’s top spokesman, was being quiet and dodging tough questions from journalists. He only gives press conferences on rare occasions, and even then he tends to stick to prepared responses.
The prime minister was also criticized in December for enjoying a steak dinner with celebrities, muddying the government’s message about refraining from eating with five or more people.
“He doesn’t seem to understand what he needs to say to get his message across. He needs a better strategy to deal with the media and, by extension, the public,” Komiya said.
Suga himself acknowledged this at a press conference on Christmas Day, apologizing for the steak dinner and promising to “make an effort to communicate with people more clearly.”
ANC, Japan, Yoshihide Suga, Yoshihide Suga re-election, Tokyo 2020 Olympics, Japan COVID-19
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