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Dwight Powell is playing his first basketball after tearing his Achilles tendon more than 11 months ago. It was not pretty.
During his previous six seasons in Dallas, Powell made a living as a vertical space threat. His athleticism and rebounding were big questions stemming from a serious lower body injury. Over the course of two games, he seems to be fine in that regard. He’s shooting 5-of-7 from the field on the season, all but one of those attempts coming from the basket.
There has been a lot of frustration from fans regarding Powell’s start to the season. With Kristaps Porzingis out for at least a few more weeks, the Mavericks are playing with a relatively small lineup.
Dorian Finney-Smith is the starting power forward. It’s a role you’re comfortable in, but it’s not ideal when playing against a team with a score-oriented front court.
Powell is the starting center, at least for the moment. The problems this creates are well documented and so far this season go well beyond health and recovery concerns, albeit in a small sample size.
The most painfully obvious problem is your defense responsibility. First off, Powell is a bit smaller for a traditional 6-foot-10 NBA center. This makes matches like Anthony Davis and Deandre Ayton, his first two assignments of the season, really hard to contain.
In addition to his lack of size, Kirk, our site’s fearless leader, routinely points out Powell’s high hips. This makes it difficult for him to create a favorable positioning on defense and often leaves him completely defenseless when backing off a post.
Powell doesn’t offer you much rim protection either: Dallas is the lowest number of blocks among teams that have played two games. The lack of a shot blocking threat often forces Powell to give up his man and stay in front of the point of attack. This creates a problem when defending a marksman and is a weakness that seems to plague the Mavericks until Porzingis returns.
Offensively, Porzingis’ absence presents an obstacle to spacing. He made more three-point attempts than any other seven-footer last season. As such, Dallas replaced his offensive one-center anomaly with someone who made 10 total three-point attempts all of last season. The results have not been very good.
The effects have been particularly profound on Luka Doncic. According to NBA.com/Stats, Doncic is shooting just 7 of 22 (31.8%) when Powell is on the court this season. His numbers skyrocket when Powell leaves the court, shooting 13 of 23 (56.5%). He also sees a significant jump in his score around the basket.
Powell is not a shooter. That inability restricts the space the Mavericks offense can create. Check out Marc Gasol in this image below. That’s the defender tasked with defending Powell, and he’s more than five meters away from him. He’s looking at Powell, daring him to shoot. There is no other reading for Powell on this play other than shooting, which is exactly what the Lakers want. Instead, Powell throws a pass into traffic and flips the ball.
Lack of space is drastically affecting the Mavericks’ offensive production. Only two players are shooting above 40% of three when Powell is on the floor: Trey Burke (3 of 4) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (3 of 7). Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Richardson, who should be two of the best stationary shooters on the team, are a combined 4 of 15 of three when Powell is on the floor.
I don’t normally prefer to use team efficiency to analyze a player’s impact; there is too much context in these numbers to be overlooked. However, the Mavericks have improved significantly in the minutes Powell is on the bench. The numbers are not good yet, but they are better.
So is it time to replace Powell in the starting lineup? Coach Rick Carlisle as some options to choose from if you decide to make a change. Maxi Kleber as an option. Kleber plays a strong, disciplined defense and can space the court outside of pick-and-pops. There’s also Willie Cauley-Stein, whom the Mavericks now pay $ 4 million a year to. If you want to get really crazy, Boban Marjanovic, 7 feet 4 inches, is also there for you.
Where do the Mavericks go from here? What difference would it make if Powell came off the bench instead of starting? Truth be told, how healthy is Powell? Is this a problem the Mavericks have to live with until Porzingis returns? Is it too critical to analyze these first two games of the season?
These are all questions that only time can answer. Meanwhile, Carlisle will have to do his best to try to answer them. However, it can get worse before it gets better. The Mavericks have a handful of tough games on the way. Porzingis’s return can’t come fast enough.