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Joe Biden —REUTERS
WASHINGTON – If Democrat Joe Biden wins the U.S. presidency, a divided Congress may prevent him from enacting important priorities such as expanding health care, fighting climate change and providing aid to millions whose lives have been affected by the coronavirus.
With millions of ballots yet to be counted, Biden led the acting president, Donald Trump, into several of the states on the battlefield that will decide the race.
Recipe for stagnation
However, his Democrats were falling short in their effort to gain control of the Senate, where Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority, although they retained control of the House of Representatives.
If those results hold up, that would be a recipe for stalemate in Washington, analysts say, where lawmakers would have a hard time agreeing on even basic duties like paying debts and financing government operations.
The most ambitious efforts are likely to be completely out of the question.
A multi-million dollar plan to curb carbon emissions and create jobs would fail in the Senate.
Biden’s plan to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy would also be dead, as would the Democratic-backed reforms to voting rights and campaign finance.
Biden will likely have to settle for a much smaller economic stimulus package as well. Democrats passed several House bills that would provide up to $ 3.4 billion to provide assistance to millions of unemployed people and help local governments keep teachers, firefighters and other employees on the payroll.
Senate Republicans have so far refused to approve anything, although their leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday that the two sides needed to reach a compromise before the end of the year. However, he did show a willingness to meet a key Democratic demand: more money for state and local governments.
“The message from the Senate Republicans will be: ‘The American people elected us to put a stop to this unrequited socialism that the Democrats are going to try to bring to this country,'” said Jon Lieber, a former McConnell aide now with the Eurasia Group.
Smaller agenda items
Lacking a majority on Capitol Hill, Biden could issue executive orders to pursue lower-caliber agenda items such as student loan relief and consumer protection.
That go it alone approach, used by Trump and Democratic President Barack Obama before him, could easily be undone by a Republican successor.
On his first day in the White House, Biden says, he will issue a national strategy to respond to COVID-19 that will likely include a mask mandate and clearer guidance on testing and reopening schools. He has also promised to work more productively with health officials Trump has ignored, such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert.
But a Republican Senate could reject cabinet appointees it deems too liberal, forcing Biden to opt for consensus elections that could frustrate those on the left wing of his party.
“We want to make sure that the people who are implementing parts of their [climate change] They are not people aligned with the fossil fuel industry, they are not corporate lobbyists, ”said Garrett Blad, national spokesman for the Sunrise Movement, a grassroots group that pushes aggressive action against climate change.
Biden campaigned as a centrist who would try to overcome partisan divisions, and as a member of the Senate from 1972 to 2008 he has a deep understanding of its workings and personal relationships with many of its members.
“Look for him to push the long-standing priorities of his similar infrastructure, where perhaps he could find the support of one or two moderate Republicans,” said Scott Mulhauser, a Democratic strategist who worked for Biden in the 2012 presidential election.
But many of Biden’s former Republican colleagues have either retired or been eliminated, leaving a more conservative majority that is less inclined to compromise.
“These periods of divided party control tend not to be very productive,” said Sarah Binder, professor of political science at George Washington University.
Elections 2022
Facing another two years of stalemate, Democrats will likely focus on winning a Senate majority in the next congressional election in November 2022.
But that could turn out badly for Democrats if Washington doesn’t take drastic action to boost the economy, improve health care and curb climate change, said Adam Jentleson, a former Democratic Senate aide to leadership.
“The real danger scenario for Biden and the Democrats is that Republicans force all solutions to be inappropriate and Democrats take them because they have to,” he said.
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