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In February, when the Iowa caucuses were underway to kick off the election year, political observers reflected on Donald Trump’s strengths for the 2020 campaign. He would ride the power of the incumbent and a booming economy through November, they argued. some, potentially against a Democrat whose views were outside the mainstream.
Then came the coronavirus pandemic. And that has become the prism through which this campaign is viewed.
In an already divided America, COVID-19, and the way Trump and his Democratic opponent Joe Biden are tackling it, have further separated Americans and spawned an election year like no other.
The president’s decision to forgo a national strategy to combat the coronavirus in favor of allowing state governors to form their own plans has allowed him to distance himself somewhat from the response.
Biden has made the virus and Trump’s handling a cornerstone of his campaign, reminding voters of the 227,000 and counting the Americans who have died.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that he has done a “great job” in managing the virus and focuses on recovery, therapeutics and vaccines in development. But October made it even more difficult for the president to avoid addressing the rising number of infections after contracting COVID-19, and many White House and campaign staff tested positive, including, this week alone, five of the major. advisers to Vice President Mike Pence.
United States President Donald Trump works in a conference room while receiving treatment at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland after testing positive for the coronavirus disease, COVID-19, on October 3. of 2020 [Joyce N Boghosia/The White House/Handout via Reuters]
In the midst of all this, the states and localities responsible for administering the elections have worked to shift voting from the very day of the election to facilitate widespread voting-by-mail procedures and encourage voters to cast their votes early, either by mail or during early voting periods in person.
Voting changes
As of Thursday, more than 80 million Americans had voted by mail or in person, surpassing the 57 million total early votes cast in 2016.
The shift to early voting has been going on for years, but the shift to voting by mail has progressed rapidly since this spring’s primaries, when the pandemic first struck and states allowed, and urged, more voters to cast. your votes remotely.
That process was not without its hiccups in several states, causing ballots to be ineligible and vote counts delayed. The cuts from the U.S. Postal Service threaten to affect the timely delivery of ballots, although up to this point, many voters are apparently getting the message and returning their ballots by mail well in advance, leaving them in designated mailboxes or taking advantage of the ability to vote in person before Election Day on November 3.
All of this has also led to unfounded conspiracy theories about the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, something Trump has embraced, initially as an effort to potentially reduce turnout, and when it seemed counterproductive, to preset a if-lose narrative. , the choice is “rigged”.
Amid all the controversy, many states changed some of their laws to give them more options for counting ballots ahead of time. States also attempted to relax regulations regarding mail ballot validation. Trump and the Republicans have challenged these measures in court with variable success. Given all the changes and potential setbacks, many state election officials are expressing optimism that the vote count will go through quickly.
The exception is Pennsylvania, which, given its complicated rules on vote-by-mail ballots, could take days or weeks to reach a final count. If you’re close in Pennsylvania, this could be significant. It would be even more significant if the country is waiting for Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes to give Trump or Biden a majority in the Electoral College.
Campaign changes
For a time, the pandemic halted large gatherings, but President Trump resumed holding packed rallies that began with one in Tulsa, Oklahoma in June. After being on the sidelines for 10 days in the wake of his COVID-19 diagnosis, the president resumed battlefield states in recent days and held campaign rallies with mostly unmasked and social distancing supporters.
Biden significantly reduced the number of in-person events, and they have all become socially distanced, some even taking place in parking lots where fans listen to the event in their vehicles, honking instead of clapping.
US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden takes the stage at a campaign stop at a drive-in movie theater in Coconut Creek, Florida on October 29, 2020 [Brian Snyder/Reuters]
Biden’s shortened campaign schedule has been replaced by a barrage of television ads, breaking the all-time spending record for a presidential campaign.
Trump’s message
Long before concerns about mail-in ballots, and long before the subsequent increase in voting designed to keep crowds from gathering at polling places on Election Day, Trump’s initial response and his eventual handling of the virus has overshadowed everything else during this campaign.
Trump has consistently downplayed the seriousness of COVID-19, promising from the start that it will “go away.” Trump, who was weaned on Norman Vincent Peale’s book The Power of Positive Thinking, has applied that sentiment to his public statements throughout, continuing to say that we have “turned a corner” with the virus, though that contradicts the data.
Trump throws a face mask from the stage during a campaign rally in Sanford, Florida, on October 12, 2020 [Jonathan Ernst/Reuters]
Most Americans for months have said they disapprove of the president’s handling of the pandemic, a statistic that has not only held steady since early 2020, but is consistent across all the battlefield states he needs to win. if you want a second term. The current RealClearPolitics average of national polls shows that 40.6 percent approve, while 56.6 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus.
The one thing we won’t know until Election Day is how all of this affects the final presidential vote, although a Pew Research Center poll revealed the partisanship behind voters’ sentiments on the issue.
Eighty-two percent of Biden supporters say the coronavirus will be very important to their vote compared to 24 percent of Trump supporters who say the same. Interestingly, the percentage of Trump supporters who view the virus as very important to their vote has dropped 15 points since August.
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