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Complacency could arise if people begin to lower their guard, believing that the country has triumphed over the virus.ST PHOTO: GIN TAY
SINGAPORE – Although Singapore has managed to reduce new infection cases to zero or just a few in recent weeks, this does not mean that the country has successfully eliminated Covid-19 from the community, experts warned.
Complacency could arise if people begin to lower their guard, believing that the country has triumphed over the virus.
In a cautionary note, Professor Teo Yik Ying, dean of the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore, said Singapore will not be safe until the world is safe, as the presence of asymptomatic patients is still It could lead to community spread.
“From some of the global surveillance studies, we understand that more than half of the infected people are asymptomatic. So unless we can test everyone in Singapore, and do it repeatedly, it would be unwise to continue assuming that we have completely eliminated the virus in Singapore, ”said Professor Teo.
“We continue to see several imported cases every day, and even if people are quarantined for 14 days, there could be an unavoidable leak if symptoms develop after 14 days.”
The actual number of Covid-19 infections is also likely higher than reported cases, said associate professor Alex Cook, an epidemiologist at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health.
“Take the case of someone who is infected, diagnosed and reported. But not all those infected are diagnosed, and this could be because they are asymptomatic, or that they do not go to the doctor when they are sick, “he said.
“I am confident in Singapore’s current testing capabilities and that we are detecting many cases that would otherwise go undetected, perhaps up to half the actual number of infections that exist, but it is not realistic to expect us to find all of them.”
Professor Cook said having zero community cases should not be the goal, even if it is laudable and “sounds like a good number”, as it could create a sense of complacency.
“The threat of Covid-19 will remain until we have a mass vaccination,” he warned.
With Singapore facilitating travel arrangements with other countries, as well as gradually relaxing restrictions around social and recreational activities, interactions between people will increase and the risks of importing infections will also increase, said Professor Teo.
When this happens, the need to maintain precautionary measures such as the use of masks, strict personal hygiene and social distancing becomes even more critical, he added.
Professor Dale Fisher, senior consultant for the division of infectious diseases at the National University Hospital, said that for the virus to be eradicated, two incubation periods would generally have to be considered, or 28 days in the case of Covid-19.
“However, even at that point, one would be reluctant to make the claim because of asymptomatic spread … and it is possible that there could be a few generations of asymptomatic spread, and then cases could appear,” argued Professor Fisher.
He also noted that trying to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic cases could be difficult, given the wide variation in the estimated percentages and that people have different thresholds before reporting symptoms.
Professor Fisher also noted that there is significant asymptomatic spread, with studies showing that the proportion of such cases could range from less than 10 percent to around 90 percent of all Covid-19 cases.
“I would say a reasonable estimate is around 40 percent. Therefore, it is still important to continue with all infection prevention measures ”, he emphasized.
“Zero cases is certainly good, but I would not support zero tolerance for cases. That would make border restrictions harder to lift. I still think that the goal should be to live with the virus while minimizing the number of cases. Border openings with selective nuances are important for all countries to avoid further social and economic damage. “
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