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Image: hedgehog94 / IStock.com via AFP Relaxnews
Even if all fossil fuel emissions were to end immediately, greenhouse gases from the food we eat could drive global temperatures above internationally agreed warming limits, a new study warned.
The system to feed the 7.7 billion people on Earth accounts for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, including logging and deforestation, the use of fertilizers and livestock.
Researchers from the United States and Britain said the only way to avoid devastating levels of warming would be to transform what we eat, how it is produced, and how much we waste.
“Our work shows that food contributes much more to climate change than is known,” said co-author Jason Hill, a professor in the Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering at the University of Minnesota.
“Fortunately, we can solve this problem by using fertilizers more efficiently, eating less meat and more fruits, vegetables, whole grains and nuts, and making other important changes to our food system.”
The Science journal study predicts future emissions from the food system using expected trends in population growth, changes in diet, and the additional amount of land believed to be needed to feed the world.
The authors found that if left unaddressed, these future food-related emissions would push the Earth above the warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, seen as the barrier to avoiding devastating climate impacts, by 2050.
By the end of the century, they would raise temperatures almost 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Unsustainable appetite
There are multiple sources of greenhouse gases in the food system in addition to the carbon dioxide emitted from the burning of fossil fuels in production and supply chains.
Land clearing and deforestation release carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O), the authors said, while the production and use of fertilizers and other agrochemicals release CO2, N2O and methane.
Methane, which has a warming potential 28 times greater than CO2 over a 100-year period, is also released by livestock such as cows, sheep and goats, as well as by rice production.
The 2015 Paris climate agreement saw nations commit to limiting temperature increases to “well below” two degrees Celsius. Earth has warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius so far.
The United Nations says that to stay below the safest limit of 1.5 ° C, emissions must fall 7.6% annually this decade.
Most efforts to curb global warming are focused on reducing carbon pollution from the transport and energy sectors, said lead author Michael Clark, a researcher at the University of Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Population Health.
“However, our research emphasizes the importance of reducing emissions from the global food system as well,” he said in a statement.
Research published in July by the Global Carbon Project found that methane emissions have increased by nine percent in a decade, fueled by humanity’s growing appetite for energy and food.
At the same time, the Diet for a Better Future report on consumption in G20 nations concluded that if everyone ate steaks and dairy the way Brazilians and Americans do, we would need five additional planets to feed the world. JB
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