[ad_1]
Now that’s more like it. Less than a week after ESPN released their season predictions that had our Houston Rockets languishing in 11th place in the Western Conference, FiveThirtyEight released their most analytical approach to the same exercise, and they have the Rockets finishing fourth overall. in the Western Conference with a final. 43-29 record.
Now this is a prediction I can back up, as I also picked the Rockets to finish fourth in the West in the SB Nation NBA season preview that also released earlier this week.
It seems that ESPN basically uses the opinions of its “experts”, while FiveThirtyEight uses a statistical model based on its proprietary RAPTOR player ratings and team ELO ratings. Here is the full explanation:
These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations for the rest of the season. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast does not take into account wins and losses; is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate the future performance of each player based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. These are combined with updated depth charts (injury tracking, trades, and other player transactions) to generate talent estimates for each team. A team’s full strength rating assumes that all of its key players are in the lineup. A team’s current rating reflects injuries and rest days in effect at the time of the team’s next game. Elo ratings, which drive the pure Elo forecast, are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory, and quality of the opponent.
So there is real statistical analysis behind these projections, not just the opinion of some speaker with an agenda (ESPN) or a hand writing with a pro-Rockets bias (me).
Anyway, here are the full Western Conference Screenings courtesy of FiveThirtyEight, along with each team’s corresponding ELO score in parentheses.
-
Los Angeles Lakers 48-24 (1658)
-
Los Angeles Clippers 45-27 (1637)
-
Denver Nuggets 45-27 (1613)
- Houston Rockets 43-29 (1595)
-
Phoenix Suns 42-30 (1604)
-
Dallas Mavericks 42-30 (1584)
-
Utah Jazz 41-31 (1585)
-
Portland Trail Blazers 40-32 (1561)
-
New Orleans Pelicans 36-36 (1552)
-
Minnesota Timberwolves 35-37 (1521)
-
San Antonio Spurs 35-37 (1524)
-
Memphis Grizzlies 34-38 (1518)
-
Sacramento Kings 31-41 (1503)
-
Golden State Warriors 31-41 (1483)
-
Oklahoma City Thunder 27-45 (1466)
In my opinion, these guys mostly pull it off. I think the Suns are too high, and I’d place them seventh or eighth in the West, and I have some problems with lottery teams. For example, I think the Warriors are a bit low and the Spurs and Wolves are too high, but what do I know? Overall, this is a much better list than ESPN’s, so kudos to FiveThirtyEight.
