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Sorting by tiers is one of the most popular ways to prepare for a Fantasy basketball draft. Within each position group, separating players into tiers is an effective means of projecting overall value and staying organized during the draft. If you’re in a position where you need to make a quick decision, consulting a set of levels can help resolve the debate between two players who are relatively close in value.
Heading into the 2020-21 season, the NBA’s talent pool is incredibly deep, so getting into their drafts with a plan is more imperative than ever.
Here are our point guard levels, which can serve as a general guide for those who play in standard leagues.
The levels assume configurations of eight categories. Each player only appears in one set of levels. Players are assigned to the position where they are likely to play the most.
Guard point
Tier 1
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
Doncic was excellent as a rookie and even better last season. He enters 2020-21 with considerable momentum after a stellar postseason in Round 1 against the Clippers. As for the fantasy, Doncic is an expert in all trades, chipping in high-level points, rebounds, assists and 3s, while averaging one steal per game and posting a solid field goal percentage. If there’s one player in the league named Russell Westbrook who could average a triple-double, it’s Doncic. However, he has a relative weakness: free throws. Over two seasons, Doncic has made just 74.2 percent of his attempts, a detrimental figure for one of the NBA’s highest-volume free-throw shooters.
Trae Young, Atlanta Falcons
Young was perhaps the best player with good stats / bad equipment in the league last season, but that’s far from being an issue when it comes to his Fantasy value. The Hawks should be a much better team in 2020-21, and while Young remains the unquestionable number one option, he will have more competition for shots. Still, Young’s elite score, assists, and free throw percentage make him a first-round value.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Lillard rose to new heights last season, setting new personal records for scoring, assists, 3-point and 3-point percentage per game. At 30, he’s at the absolute peak of his powers and should be ready for another monster campaign. Lillard missed a series of games last season with a leg injury, but he has traditionally been among the longest-running stars in the NBA.
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
For most of his career, James has been a better player in real life than the Fantasy player, but has returned first-round value (per game) in all but two of his 17 NBA seasons. James should enter the season as the favorite to repeat as the league’s assists leader, but the biggest concern is that he could miss significant time after playing through October in the bubble.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Coming off a lost season, expectations are once again through the roof for the two-time MVP. In his heyday, Curry was the Most Valuable Player in Fantasy basketball. It may still be a first-round value, but durability is a serious concern as your 33rd birthday approaches.
Level 2: high level beginners
Russell Westbrook, Wizards of Washington
After swapping places with John Wall earlier in the week, Westbrook is in a slightly better Fantasy situation. He still managed an elite limit-level production last season, but Westbrook should inherit even more possessions playing alongside Bradley Beal, rather than James Harden. The question is whether he will continue to play in a more disciplined style or will he go back to his old style, happy with the 3 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
With Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams Y Dennis Schroder offstage, Gilgeous-Alexanders is clear number one in Oklahoma City. His efficiency could suffer, but Gilgeous-Alexander should be prepared to make leaps across the board, especially on points and assists.
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets
After missing more than 15 games in four of the past five seasons, and significantly more in some of them, Irving is officially on the short list of riskiest players in Fantasy Basketball. When healthy, he is a super efficient scorer, adding assists, rebounds, 3s and steals. But Irving’s recent story is too disturbing to ignore. Conservative Fantasy managers should probably steer clear in 2020-21.
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
Last season was frustrating for the Sixers, but Simmons quietly had the best Fantasy campaign of his career. The roster around him has been tweaked, and while his season-ending knee injury is no longer an issue, Simmons has an overall advantage in the top 20.
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
At some point, the wheels are going to fall off. But for the Fantasy managers who bet it would happen last season, Lowry made them pay. Appearing in 58 games, Lowry was one of the top 30 players in total value and the 20th player overall in production per game. Lowry may have one final All-Star season on him, but he will turn 35 in March, so recruiting him early carries more risks than ever.
De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
While it improved as the year progressed, last season was primarily a disappointment for Fox. It finished outside the top 100 in total value and dropped to 56th in value per game, 10 places down from its 2018-19 finish. Fox has a big advantage if he can reverse his three-point shots (29.2% last season; 37.1% in 2018-19).
Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks
Going from New Orleans to Milwaukee is probably a sideways move for Holiday’s Fantasy value, but some regression is possible as he will work as the third option behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. Ideally, Holiday will improve at the free throw line after shooting 70.9 percent, the worst of his career, last season.
Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns
In Phoenix, Paul will reprise his role as an older statesman on a young team. If he stays healthy, Paul is fully capable of replicating last season’s production. But as a 35-year-old with a long injury history, not to mention a condensed 2020-21 schedule, that’s an important Yes.
Level 3
Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
The current Rookie of the Year finished 74th in value per game last season. Morant was excellent as a scorer and passer, but he only hit 2.7 3-pointers per game. Considering that it hit a fairly respectable 33.5 percent pace, the hope is that it will increase in volume in year 2.
Lonzo Ball, New Orleans Pelicans
Ball’s passing, rebounding and defensive numbers make him an attractive upside play, especially after he shot better than 37 percent of the 3 attempts last season. Ball is an extremely poor free throw shooter (56.6% last season), but he rarely makes it to the line, so he’s not too detrimental to his Fantasy value.
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Statistically, Murray has been essentially the same player for the past three seasons, but he showed some advantage to the next level in Orlando’s bubble. If that carries over, it could approach the end of Level 2.
Kemba Walker, Boston Celtics
Walker has long been one of Fantasy’s most trusted point guards, but a pesky knee injury threatens that reputation. Walker played just 56 games last season, and has already been ruled out for the start of 2020-21. At some point, the risk is worth the reward, but considering the likelihood of load management, Walker’s value is significantly lower than it has been in recent years.
Devonte ‘Graham, Charlotte Hornets
Perhaps the biggest surprise of Fantasy’s season in 2019-20, Graham was among the league leaders in 3s, assists and minutes played last season. He’s in a good place for another productive year, but the additions of Gordon Hayward and No. 3 overall pick LaMelo Ball could inhibit Graham’s value.
John Wall, Houston Rockets
In addition to not playing in an NBA game in nearly two calendar years, Wall will have to adjust to a new city and a new group of teammates. Sharing the court with James Harden isn’t an easy task, but both Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook were able to save strong Fantasy seasons alongside one of the most-used players in NBA history. By far the most important question for Wall is whether he will be able to stay healthy after an Achilles tendon tear.
Malcolm Brogdon
After starting last season with a tear, Brogdon gradually cooled down and once again missed a few stages due to injury. His efficiency also plummeted as he posted a 44/33/89 shooting line, a far cry from his all-time 51/43/93 line as a member of the Bucks in 2018-19. On a more positive note, Brogdon posted a career-high 16.5 points per game and more than doubled his assist production (3.2 to 7.1 APG).
Level 4
Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs
Murray is one of the best defenders in the league, and that was reflected in his 1.7 steals per game last season, a figure that’s even more impressive when you notice he played just 25.6 minutes per game. If that number gets close to 30, Murray will be among the leading candidates for the season.
Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves
The veteran is back where he belongs after tours in Utah and Phoenix, but when it comes to fantasy, he can take a step back. Fitting in alongside D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and rookie Anthony Edwards, who will command important minutes in the backcourt, will not be easy. Rubio should remain a great source of assists, but it would be surprising if he matched 8.8 per game last season.
Dennis Schroder, Los Angeles Lakers
Joining LeBron James and Anthony Davis could result in fewer touches for Schroder, but the Lakers desperately need a third playmaker. If LA hands Schroder the keys when LeBron is off the court, another season in the top 100 may be on the cards.
Markelle Fultz, Orlando Magic
Fultz averaged a respectable 12-5-3 last season, adding 1.3 steals and shooting nearly 47 percent from the field. He also made a dramatic improvement as a free throw shooter, hitting 73 percent of his attempts. The next step will be to improve from beyond the arc, where he connected with only 26.7 percent of his appearance.
Mike Conley, Utah Jazz
One of Fantasy’s (and real-life) biggest disappointments last season, Conley is a popular comeback candidate, and for good reason. The 33-year-old has a history as one of the league’s most consistent point guards. The hope is that last year’s 163rd overall result, by far the worst since 2007-08, will end up looking like a major anomaly.
Goran Dragic, Miami Heat
Dragic finished outside of the top 130 in value per game last season, but he spent the entire regular season backing Kendrick Nunn. If he picks up where he left off in the bubble, Dragic has a top 100 advantage.
Level 5
Coby White, Chicago Bulls
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
Spencer Dinwiddie, Brooklyn Nets
Shake Milton, Philadelphia 76ers
Derrick Rose, Detroit Pistons
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