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MANILA – An expert in epidemiology and data analysis working with the Department of Health said Tuesday that the Philippines has begun to flatten the curve for COVID-19.
Dr. John Wong of Epimetrics Inc. and associate professor at the Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health showed journalists that the duplication time for COVID-19 in the Philippines is 4-5 days.
He explained that the doubling time of cases, or the time it takes to double the total number of COVID-19 cases, is how DOH measures the speed of the outbreak. Epimetrics Inc. is one of the groups that helps DOH with data analysis.
“We want bigger numbers because that means the outbreak is smaller. It takes more time for the outbreak to double.
Dr. John Wong of Epimetrics Inc. said at this morning’s DOH briefing that there is a flattening of the epidemic curve for both the number of cases and the number of deaths. “Despite the delay, the flattening we see of the curve is a real event.” @ABSCBNNews pic.twitter.com/cLpTWmnEE9
– Kristine Sabillo (@kristinesabillo) May 5, 2020
Wong, who is part of the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) sub-technical data analysis working group on COVID-19, said that when the outbreak started, the doubling time was only a day or two.
“Now, it doubles around 4 days,” he said, adding that the doubling time for deaths is also slowing down.
He said that the case duplication time for all geographic units has improved.
Despite such reports that the curve has been flattening, Undersecretary of Health María Rosario Vergeire told reporters during the same briefing that the public should analyze the broader context.
She said that people should consider the capacity of the country’s health system, as well as the limitations of governments. He noted that the data is also affected by delays in COVID-19 testing and data encoding.
“The data you see now is about 10 or 14 days late,” Wong said, considering the delays. “If there have been no significant changes, we would expect the flattening to continue.”
He noted that even if there are delays, the positive cases only represent 10% of those analyzed and will not substantially affect the curve or the graph.
However, he cautioned that cases will continue to fluctuate as long as there is no vaccine for COVID-19.
“Until we have a vaccine, we should see sudden increases, movements up and down the epidemic curve. Although we now see some flattening of the movement or improvement, if we relax the ECQ and when we do, we should be on the lookout for a resurgence, ”Wong said.
He explained that the pandemic will only end when a vaccine is discovered, which could take more than a year to develop.
Wong said it will be up to the IATF to decide whether and when the enhanced community quarantine will be lifted in some parts of the country.
“A message to carry for all, Hindi for complacent dapat maging,” said Vergeire, adding that the country should be ready for a revival if the ECQ is lifted.
(Our final message to everyone is that we should not be complacent.)
As of Monday, the Philippines had recorded 9,485 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 1,315 recoveries and 623 deaths.
COVID-19, flattening of the curve, coronavirus, Department of Health, data analysis COVID-19
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