[ad_1]
TESTS. Frontline workers go through Covid-19 rapid tests during a community-based test in Sampaloc, Manila, May 8, 2020.
Photo by Inoue Jaena / Rappler
MANILA, Philippines – Researchers warned that according to the mathematical forecast, premature relaxation of the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) in the National Capital Region (NCR) can lead to 1,700 deaths in June.
The research was published by the University of the Philippines (UP) Professor of Mathematics, Guido David, the UP Professor of Political Science, Ranjit Singh Rye, and Maria Patricia Agbulos, all of whom are Fellows of the research firm OCTA Research.
“A premature relaxation of the ECQ in the NCR may result in an escalation of 24,000 cases and 1,700 deaths by June 15, 2020,” their study said.
Their study used data available from the Department of Health (DOH) and calculated the epidemiological reproduction number, or the average of new cases originating from one case. Using a 7-day average for the breeding number, the researchers plotted a forecast for June 15.
“Based on our data, if the ECQ rises prematurely, we will face another wave or an increase in transmissions that will surely squander our profits by forcing us to make costly interventions and increase the total economic cost and number of lives lost,” they said. investigators.
The researchers said the data would show “there were gains due to the ECQ.”
“The goal is to maintain these gains until such time as you have expanded and deployed your programs and initiatives for mass testing, contact tracing and isolation of infectious individuals,” the study said.
He added: “We warn the government against premature relaxation of the improved Community Quarantine without substantial data and without the minimum guarantees of health in the affected areas, regardless of the historical number of cases. “
As of Saturday, May 9, the number of coronavirus cases in the Philippines has reached 10,610. Of the 147 new cases on Saturday, 123 or 84% were from the National Capital Region.
A mathematician at Manila University of Athenaeum, Professor Felix Muga II, previously said that the curve has not yet flattened for the Philippines. – Rappler.com
[ad_2]
