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Mindanao, Philippines – Screaming at the top of their lungs, more than a thousand residents of Polanco, a small town in the southern Philippines, stood shoulder to shoulder in a local park earlier this month to join a countdown to light the Christmas tree, challenging to national authorities. government social distancing guidelines.
Some people did not wear masks while children who were banned from attending mass gatherings due to the risk of infection ran.
Police stood helpless amid the crowd as politicians allied to President Rodrigo Duterte led the ceremony.
Days later, many of the same residents gathered again at a nearby church to join the nationwide “Simbang Gabi,” a series of nine nightly rituals commemorating the birth of Christ. Inside, the social distancing protocols were difficult to observe.
Those scenes have been repeated throughout the predominantly Catholic nation in the lead up to Christmas, which falls on Friday. Amid the threat of the pandemic, many of the 86 million Filipino faithful insist on upholding a 350-year religious tradition that dates back to Spanish times and is celebrated in a carnival of festivities that begins in September.
Not far from downtown Polanco, the cockfighting arena is back in business.
After months of closure, authorities have allowed it to reopen, drawing crowds of players, mostly men. Health protocols are enforced indoors, but it’s unclear how strict the rules are enforced there or in similar venues across the country, as viewers routinely shout out their bets, which can run into the hundreds of dollars as they watch. the roosters fight to the death.
While it is difficult to establish a direct link between specific events and locations for rising COVID-19 infections, Philippine health experts say that an increase in new cases is “most likely” associated with holiday crowds, as well as more flexible health regulations in the local community. level.
At the height of the coronavirus lockdown in July, Duterte issued a stern warning to local officials to strictly adhere to national anti-pandemic guidelines. He even urged the authorities to shoot the violators of the confinement. He also said that by December the country would “be back to normal” with vaccines available from China.
But in 285 days since he ordered the shutdown, Duterte’s bravado now seems empty, with none of the vaccines he promoted approved by regulators and a new wave of transmission emerging. Even his promise that he would volunteer to be part of Russia’s vaccine trial has not materialized and local communities in his hometown in Mindanao have been seen openly disobeying his orders as they celebrate the most important religious festival of the year in Philippines
Increased reproduction rate of COVID-19
On Tuesday, Octa Research, a group of Filipino experts monitoring COVID-19 cases, warned of a further surge in infections in the capital Manila, with the reproduction rate rising from 1.06 to 1.15 and above.
“It is in this light that we believe, based on our analysis of the data and past trends in the NCR (National Capital Region) that an increase in its early stages in the region has already begun. This is a serious cause for concern, ”the research firm said.
Seven provinces across the country are also seeing an increase, he added, urging the government to “intensify its testing, tracking and isolation efforts” to reverse the trend.
Researchers monitoring the pandemic in the Philippines said Tuesday that the COVID-19 reproduction rate has risen from 1.06 to 1.15 and continues to rise. [File: Rolex dela Pena/EPA]
The group urged national and local governments to strictly enforce health protocols and discourage mass gatherings to curb the outbreak. He also alerted the government to increase health care capacity as soon as possible.
As of 08:00 GMT on Wednesday, coronavirus deaths in the Philippines surpassed 9,000, with more than 464,000 cases, of which nearly 430,000 have reportedly recovered.
Octa Research’s Dr. Butch Ong told a virtual press conference on Wednesday that with the current trend, infections are likely to hit 500,000 in a few days.
He called on Filipinos to adhere to health and safety measures in their communities.
An increase in COVID-19 cases is in its early stages in Metro Manila, particularly in cities in the northern part of the capital region, experts said Wednesday. | @DJEsguerraINQ https://t.co/bSNmh9IPVO
– Researcher (@inquirerdotnet) December 23, 2020
Health Secretary Francisco Duque also reiterated his call on Wednesday for Filipinos to observe minimum standards of health protection to avoid the expected increase.
But his latest message was met with public contempt after he had an open fight with Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin, who accused him of “dropping the ball” in the delayed negotiations to acquire at least 10 million doses of the vaccine. Pfizer by early 2021.
Dreaded upward trend
Dr. Joey Hernandez, a Johns Hopkins University-trained epidemiologist and biostatistics expert, told Al Jazeera that researchers noticed the increase in cases in the country in mid-December.
Hernandez, who contracted COVID-19 in Manila last March, said the spike in new cases was “more likely” related to holiday crowds, as well as more relaxed lockdown regulations.
With no major announcements about stricter guidelines expected in the coming days or a vaccine launch imminent, the upward trend is likely to continue, he added.
Dr. Raymond Naguit, a physician and chairman of the progressive Akbayan Youth party, told Al Jazeera that it was already “scary enough to imagine” what the cases would be like after December.
“The Christmas season is known to be a time when Filipinos gather, shop and celebrate,” he said, noting that while this year’s festivities may not be as crowded as in previous years, the “seemingly harmless gatherings “from friends and family could still spread the virus.
Philippine health experts classify a daily average of 4,000 new cases as critical. Current figures range from 1,000 to 2,000 confirmed cases daily.
That means the current pace is still manageable and has not yet reached a point that could potentially overwhelm the healthcare system, Naguit explained.
Still, the statistics must be approached with caution, he said, as each hospital and region may collect the figures differently.
Impact on health workers
As things stand, Naguit said, based on his conversations with other healthcare workers, the pandemic has already taken a serious physical and emotional toll on the profession.
“Some of them are already considering changing careers entirely, while some young health professionals are considering postponing their entry into the workplace,” he said.
In addition to this, healthcare workers in general feel that they are being exploited, and many of them are overworked and underpaid.
Japeth Dayahan is a senior nurse at a government health center on the central island of Negros. She says that because the hospital where she works is understaffed, they have had to extend the nurses’ shifts to accommodate the growing number of patients.
Medical experts predict that COVID-19 cases in the Philippines are likely to continue to rise before a vaccine becomes widely available in 2021 and 2022. [File: Aaron Favila/AP]
“We did not foresee this problem,” he said. “We also have to have a sufficient budget for hospitals.”
This Christmas season, he says he is praying for the healing of his COVID-19 patients and for the killings in Negros to stop, noting the recent murder of a city health doctor, who was leading his community’s antipanddemic medical response .
With little sign of a vaccine being widely distributed in the Philippines (the government says it is “still in negotiations” with manufacturers), Akbayan Youth’s Naguit says the further increase in cases is a “likely possibility.”
“I just hope that the government is prepared for potential surges and is ready to apply stricter measures while ensuring that the basic needs of the people are met,” he said.
As for Ray Pagulong, a devout Catholic from Surigao in eastern Mindanao, not even the threat of a life-threatening virus can prevent him from attending the nine days of prayers that culminate in a mass gathering at his church on Christmas Eve. Thursday night.
“At my church we adhere to social distancing, proper sanitation and even body temperature control,” he told Al Jazeera.
“It has always been my promise to complete the nine days of prayer, because it is my way of expressing my greatest thanks to God,” added the former Filipino worker abroad. Aside from the pandemic, her family also had to deal with flooding at their home due to a recent typhoon.
“This season of Advent in some ways is a reminder to me that we need to reflect and prepare for the coming of God.”
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