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Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, October 8) COVID-19 cases in the country are trending downward, but the government may consider a stricter quarantine classification for 13 areas that have seen an increase in viral transmission, experts from the University of the Philippines said.
The UP OCTA research team noted in its Oct.6 report that over the past three weeks, the following high-risk areas saw an increase in their daily attack rates per 1,000 residents:
– Benguet (including Baguio city)
– New Ecija
– Quezon
– Pangasinan (including Dagupan)
– Davao del Sur (including the city of Davao)
– Iloilo (including the city of Iloilo)
– Misamis Oriental (including Cagayan de Oro)
– South Cotabato
– Surigao del Sur
– Western Samar
– Zamboanga del Sur (including the city of Zamboanga)
The team said these areas are considered high-risk as they have a daily attack rate of more than one percent and have reported an upward trend since Sept. 16. The attack rate refers to the percentage of the population that contracts the virus during a period.
“The national government may consider reverting to a stricter quarantine classification for the aforementioned areas,” the team said.
Meanwhile, he also suggested placing the provinces of Cagayán and Isabela under a stricter state of quarantine. While both are still classified as low risk, he said the two areas have also been seeing an increase in new cases and have limited hospital capacity.
The report also showed that the provinces of Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal and Negros Occidental have seen a decrease in their daily attack rates. However, they are still considered high risk after reporting more than 100 new cases a day during the last two weeks. Together with Metro Manila, these five areas generally account for the highest number of new patients announced by the Department of Health (DOH) on a daily basis.
“The national and local government must intensify their testing, tracking and isolation efforts to reverse the increase in transmissions in these areas,” the group said.
Decreasing trend for PH
While an increase has been seen in some areas, national COVID-19 numbers have generally improved, experts said.
They noted that the country’s new cases have dropped to an average of less than 2,500 a day according to DOH reports. In Metro Manila, the epicenter of the outbreak in the country, new infections are now less than 1,000 a day.
The positivity rate in the National Capital Region, or the percentage of people who test positive for the virus out of all who have been tested, also dropped to eight percent. However, the group noted that it is still above the World Health Organization’s ideal rate of five percent.
In addition, he stressed that positive trends “are not irreversible” and that all stakeholders must make significant efforts to sustain gains. He added that the implementation of more aggressive localized closures in Metro Manila and other high-risk areas are “urgently needed to suppress more viral transmissions.”
As of October 8, the country’s case count reached 331,869. Of this number, the DOH said 51,482 are currently ill, 6,069 have died and 274,318 have recovered.
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