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Only two people stand in the way of a historic French Open clash between top seed Novak Djokovic and No. 2 Rafael Nadal, who seeks to equal Roger Federer’s all-time record for the Grand Singles title. 20. Men’s Slam. While neither Stefanos Tsitsipas nor Diego Schwartzman have played a grand final, neither is a surprise semi-finalist.
We asked some of our top analysts, Patrick McEnroe, Brad Gilbert and Jason Goodall, to answer a few questions about the semi-finals. They are joined by Craig O’Shannessy, the strategy analyst for the ATP Tour, Wimbledon and the Italian Tennis Federation.
No. 2 Nadal vs. No. 14 Schwartzman
What strengths and tactics could Schwartzman bring to create a sensational surprise?
Brad Gilbert: Schwartzman doesn’t play like he’s 5-foot-7, the way he takes time away from an opponent. Grab the ball earlier than most, with compact strokes, so the ball is on you quickly, even on a slow court. It is amazing to see. It’s nice. Its success just proves that you can be big or small, but if you put yourself on the court and take time away from an opponent, you have a lot to work with.
Patrick McEnroe: Schwartzman is an excellent returner (he ranks just behind Djokovic and Nadal in ATP return statistics), but he is not successful because he is stepping in and hitting big returns in the same way that Rafa is successful because he is hitting a lot of aces. Diego has a lot of variety in his return and may be able to find Rafa’s backhand and avoid having to run away from Rafa’s second shot.
Jason Goodall: Diego Schwartzman has a world-class setback. Historically, Nadal taunts right-handed opponents on clay with his high-rebounding forehand. Schwartzman needs to take advantage of these slow, wet conditions that produce a low bounce to take the backhand at a normal height early on, and when Nadal drops a short ball, Diego has to change the direction of the rally.
Craig O’Shannessy: Nadal is most lethal when he can hit the forehand from the inside out, so Schwartzman needs to make trades where his forehand goes the reverse of Nadal. The place to attack Nadal is wide to his right. Nadal does such a good job of running around his backhand that the width to the right can be a weak point, if you can find it.
What can Nadal do to overcome Schwartzman’s tremendous defense?
McEnroe: You have to be incredibly fit to resist Nadal’s physical attack for a long period. Rafa’s right hand is still the biggest blow on the court. Despite the fact that Diego can catch the ball before most, if they are crossing the field in rallies or from right to right, Rafa has more shooting weight. He will try to wear down Schwartzman, who may be able to be with him for a couple of sets, like he did in Rome, but this is the best of five.
Gilbert: I hope Rafa has a little more pop in his shots and makes adjustments to his position on the court. He needs to be more adventurous on his serve and try to break through Diego’s forehand because that backhand is phenomenal. Nadal should win a few second serves. If Diego wins 60% of his second points, Nadal could be in trouble.
O’Shannessy: I like the idea of playing against Schwartzman in center court at the start of the rally. It plays very well in the corners, so don’t give it these angles right away. Then once Schwartzman tries to go Nadal’s backhand, he won’t have much of an angle to work with to make it wider, so Nadal can take advantage of his great weapon: his fast forehand.
Goodall: Nadal tries to dictate the game and dominate the points, forcing opponents to make mistakes or forcing them to take too many undue risks to try and beat him. That didn’t work for him in Rome, but Rafa has to rely on his ability in five sets. Schwartzman’s energy reserves are more depleted than yours. Nadal has to stick to his game plan and challenge Schwartzman to play defense for more than five hours.
The environmental conditions reportedly worked more against Nadal than against any other contender, but he has not lost a set. Is it still a valid theory?
Goodall: Sure, Nadal’s game is most effective on hot, dry, sunny days. However, that’s like saying that Usain Bolt preferred to race in the sun on a nice dry track rather than in the rain. Either way, Bolt would be the favorite to win. The same for Nadal in Paris.
O’Shannessy: Nadal’s tall guns, massive spin and jumping off the court have all been blunted by the cold weather. Jannik Sinner was Nadal’s toughest test, so those are the most important match metrics. Nadal missed extended plays of more than nine shots (28-22) in the first two sets against Sinner, suggesting that Schwartzman could do the same on longer plays.
McEnroe: The problem may be less relevant than in the past. Rafa is more adaptable now. He has improved on faster courts, which has helped him on clay. You can catch the ball early, play closer to the baseline, and also go further and cut the court more often. You just don’t trust the same old ruthless grind. But he is still the best clay court player of all time.
Gilbert: Rafa will have to play closer to the baseline, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had it in his back pocket. But there was also a great date from him before the tournament started. After talking about heavy balls, wet conditions and all that negative stuff, he said: “The situation is special. The conditions here are probably the most difficult for me at Roland Garros because of so many different facts. But you know what, I’m here. to fight and play with the greatest possible intensity. ” He has done that.
No. 1 Djokovic No. 6 Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas crushed Andrey Rublev in the quarters. Can he muster enough offense to break Djokovic’s much-lauded defense?
McEnroe: Stefanos has enough athleticism and variation in his game to give Djokovic trouble. You have taken all the right steps to reach the next level. He reached the French Open after two very tough defeats at the US Open and in the final in Hamburg. Some youngsters would have plummeted after both defeats, but they didn’t. It seems determined. I would be less surprised if Djokovic lost than if Nadal did.
Gilbert: Tsitsipas’ backhand and return service hits take a long time. This court is giving it to him, with the ball passing relatively low and slow. That gives Stefanos time to make a complete turn. As a result, his shots have had more rebounds and spin than anyone else’s. Who would have guessed that, in a strange way, the guys who get the most help from conditions are Tsitsipas and Schwartzman?
O’Shannessy: Tsitsipas must play an offensive match against Djokovic to stand a chance. Novak will be rock solid in the backhand corner, so taking backhand down the line to get out of the ad court exchanges will be key for Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas needs his forehand to be a very poisonous shot, and he has to attack Djokovic wide on the track of two with forehand running.
Goodall: Perhaps Tsitsipas could do it on another surface and in different conditions, but not in Paris if Djokovic is not injured. Djokovic defends aggressively better than any other player in the history of the game.
Djokovic is undefeated in full matches this year. What are your areas of potential vulnerability or weakness?
McEnroe: It’s hard to see anything. But Novak goes through these periods where he seems totally out of place. I don’t know if it’s real or just in his head. There are also the minor injuries he appears to be a victim of. But Tsitsipas can’t even look at that. He has to focus on playing an incredible game on every court. He has beaten all the best, so Novak does not intimidate him.
Goodall: Djokovic has no weaknesses in his game. What is the game plan against him? Even Nadal and Federer fight. One option is to take him off the court, which Tsitsipas cannot do under the conditions. Tsistipas will have to put his game on the red line and play flawless tennis on every court to have a fighting chance. It’s a very long shot.
Gilbert: Djokovic has hit more drop shots in this tournament than ever. That’s the only thing that’s given some guys a break because he’s losing some and testing droppers at big spots. Tsitsipas moves tremendously well, so if Novak tries to drop him, he could be in trouble.
O’Shannessy: Djokovic shows almost no areas of vulnerability. He is controlling the baseline exchanges as well as ever. Tsitsipas should attack early in the points and make it a first strike match, with 0-4 shot rallies rather than trying to knock Novak down in longer rallies.
If this match goes on for four or five sets, what will count more, Tsitispas’s youth and legs or Djokovic’s fitness and experience (arm / neck injury)?
Gilbert: Djokovic is 33, but he actually looks more like 23. However, the cold conditions make it difficult for everyone, especially someone with a bothersome injury. It’s going to be tough weather. It would help Djokovic if the roof was closed.
McEnroe: I don’t think Tsitsipas will get tired, he’s in great shape. But even if it’s 3 in the fifth, I’ll still give Djokovic the advantage because he’s shown how much more he has in the tank than most guys. Not that Novak is 38 or 39 years old. He is 33. Neither he nor Nadal are at a point where they can lose strength. Even when he looks tired, Novak will find some gasoline.
Goodall: Tsitsipas seems to have the mental prowess to take on the best players in the world. Believe in yourself. He’s a great athlete, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. But if it does drag on, Djokovic has the upper hand with his additional experience at this level in these types of matches.
O’Shannessy: Tsitsipas will not take Djokovic off the court, and longer the match remains an advantage for Djokovic. Experience is very important in a Grand Slam semi-final. But if Tsitsipas stays close, good things can happen.
