Bucks vs Heat preview: caging Antetokounmpo won’t be enough

Three NBA playoff games ended Saturday: Milwaukee Bucks 118-104 Orlando Magic, Houston Rockets 114-80 Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Lakers 131-122 Portland Trail Blazers.

Two of the winning teams, the Lakers and the Bucks, will reach the semifinals in their conferences and the Bucks will face the Miami Heat, which gave the team a rather difficult time before suspension.

Miami knows how to put a leash on ‘Greek Freak’

In March, Miami defeated Milwaukee 105-89 at home, ending their six-game winning drive. Giannis Antetokounmpo was 6-18 for 13 points, a season low. Miami All-Star center Bam Adebayo was good enough in both size and agility to stop Antetokounmpo and lure him into the defensive trap.

Adebayo would stay one step away from Antetokounmpo so the Greek Freak couldn’t stride past him or grow too fast to be stopped. In this way, Antetokounmpo had to slowly push against the rim under Adebayo’s obstruction. His vision of the court was not good enough to find open partners on the weak side. He couldn’t pass the ball to the teammate he could find because those passes were cut off by other Miami members.

When Antetokounmpo entered the paint like this, he didn’t have the soft touch to get the ball into the basket, especially when Adebayo and (sometimes) others challenged him there. By the way, Miami had remarkable rebound protection, so it would be difficult to chase second-chance points.

If Antetokounmpo tried to get close to the paint, at least two Heat defenders would immediately team up to catch him and try to send him off. He lacked the strength and skills to quickly crash his defender off the post was the main reason such a defense could work. When Antetokounmpo was pushed away from the free throw line, he could hardly pose much of an offensive threat.

Of course, that defense is not perfect.

Although they did an outstanding job catching Antetokounmpo, Miami actually preferred to switch on defense. Adebayo’s 2.06 meter height was another reason they could do it. However, such a small team also meant that Miami would not feel comfortable when Brook Lopez, 2.13 meters tall and 128 kilograms, began to appear around the rim. The 32-year-old center had been known for his offensive low-block skills before switching to stretch space from the 3-point line. During the season restart, Lopez found his posting moves regressed and could be a problem for Miami’s defense.

Also, the real key to this series could be in the hands of Khris Middleton. The last type of player who wants to face teams that prefer to switch on defense is the isolation scorer like Middleton. No matter who switched to defend Middleton, the two-time All-Star swingman always had a way of scoring, whether it be through a jump off a triple threat or a penetration after a false bomb.

Now imagine when Middleton has the ball and Lopez’s call screen, how will Miami respond on defense? Remember, Middleton averaged 4.3 assists in less than 30 minutes per game and Lopez could roll to the basket or go on goal after setting up the screen. As the Miami defense tried to figure out how to deal with these two, they must keep an eye on Antetokounmpo and his monstrous athleticism.

The shooters will determine the offense of both sides

Although they were ranked as the seventh best offensive team in the league, Miami did not have any explosive scorers: Jimmy Butler averaged the most 19.9 points per game on the team. Instead, they had eight players reaching double-digit points.

Miami played give and take on offense most of the time. Adebayo only lost 15.9 points per game, but was able to deliver 6.1 assists per game, the team’s maximum. Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn and Andre Iguodala took on the role of orchestrators. Plus, thanks to shooters like Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder and Tyler Herro, Miami buried 13.4 3s (sixth-highest in the league) at a 3-point rate of 37.9 percent (second-best in the league).

As mentioned above, Milwaukee, despite its league-leading defense, prioritized rim protection over everything else and seemed willing to leave some open 3-pointers. Miami’s chance in this series will depend on whether its shooters can make opponents call from the center.

Meanwhile, triples also play an important role in Milwaukee’s offense: the team sank 13.8 3-pointers (the fourth-highest number in the league) and made 38.9 attempts (also the fourth-highest number in the league) for match. One of the reasons they lost to Miami in March was that the entire team only made seven 3-pointers at a 3-point rate of 20.59 percent; Miami sank 18 to 48.65 percent, by the way.

Sure Antetokounmpo doesn’t have the best view of the court, but with his size, he can still get the ball out of his teammate in many cases. If the rest of Milwaukee can keep making those shots, Miami will hesitate each time before trying to catch the Greek monster.

Game 1 of this series will take place on August 31.