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All the players have debuted at the Miami Open now, so all the remaining competitors know the conditions. The heat of the first week has caused some problems and the best players will surely be looking to conserve energy where they can in these early rounds. The players are trying to get to the round of 16, but who will make it?
Predictions for Day Five of the ATP Miami Open
Frances Tiafoe vs. Dusan Lajovic
Head to head: Tiafoe 1-1 Lajovic
This has the feeling of being a difficult match to call. Both players are inconsistent on the tour. They both have weapons that can damage the other player, but the deciding factor in this confrontation may lie in the column of unforced errors. Any one of these men who can reduce his mistakes enough will probably win.
The current form also has the players difficult to separate. Lajovic has found Marton Fucsovics stopping his path twice recently, but managed a huge win over Daniil Medvedev. Tiafoe has been winning but has had bad weather this week and this leads me to believe that he is not quite in the pace he needs to take this one. The greater variety and potentially higher ceiling in Lajovic’s game at the moment give him the edge here.
Prediction: Lajovic in 3
Jan-Lennard Struff vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Head to head: Bautista Agut 4-1 Struff
It really doesn’t surprise me that the German has such a poor record in his career against Bautista Agut. The Spaniard simply loves a player who can provide them with rhythm and can use their movement to hunt down the ball and redirect that rhythm against them. However, their last meeting on a hard court was last year and Struff found a way to beat that game and beat a tight two-set.
However, Bautista Agut has certainly been the player in the best form in 2021. He reached the final in both Montpellier and Doha recently, while Struff had only won one match from the Australian Open to the opening match here. It would be a surprise if Struff could win this match, Bautista Agut is expected to be too solid on serve and in rallies to allow the German to win the match.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 2
Cameron Norrie vs. Taylor Fritz
Chief to the meeting: Norrie 3-2 Fritz
These players will know each other very well. Their five previous encounters have occurred since 2019 and all of them on a hard surface. However, this gives us a solid bench to analyze the game.
Even though Norrie led the heads-up game, it’s actually Fritz who has won the most points in all five games. The American also has a higher retention percentage, so clearly Norrie has been able to win the key points in their previous matchups. Both men are also in decent form in this clash and we can expect two confident performers on the court. However, the analysis leads me to think that Fritz may have the upper hand in this one, but I hope he is tight and will probably take a deciding set to separate the two.
Prediction: Fritz at 3
Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexei Popyrin
Head to head: Medvedev 2-0 Popyrin
The Russian may still have some questions to answer at the highest level, but he is turning into something of a machine outside of those Grand Slam finals. However, Popyrin is probably in the best shape of his life and has a title under his belt after winning in Singapore in February.
The key to this match will be whether Popyrin’s improvement is enough to reverse the dominance shown by Medvedev in their previous encounters. Looking at the stats, it is clear that it will be difficult for Popyrin to break Medvedev’s serve, he is the weakest part of the Australian’s game and Medvedev has intimidating numbers in the last year on serve. If the Australian can keep his serve then he could risk a tiebreaker, but that seems like a long shot. Expect Medvedev to find at least one break per set and take this one.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
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