ADB: Full resumption of face-to-face classes could increase COVID-19 deaths by 8 percent

MANILA, Philippines – The full resumption of face-to-face classes in Philippine schools in the first half of 2021 could increase the number of deaths from COVID-19 by 8 percent, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The increase in the death rate is compared to existing levels when all students are forced to study off campus.

However, ADB also estimated that keeping students physically out of school in the 2020-2021 school year would cost P1.9 billion in lost economic opportunities.

The country’s chief economist said on Wednesday (December 16) that he supported a gradual and safe resumption of school activities at the site.

Acting Secretary for Socioeconomic Planning, Karl Kendrick T. Chua, told a forum that the planned two-week pilot of classroom classes in January in areas with low COVID-19 infections was a “good indication” of progress made in fighting disease.

Chua, who heads the National Development and Economy Authority of the state planning agency Neda, cited experts’ assertion that it would be manageable to resume face-to-face classes in low-risk areas.

Neda’s boss said it was more difficult and less productive to attend classes online, which later on would also have an impact on the quality of education students receive and their future productivity when they join the workforce.

The face-to-face pilot classes would also be a test case that will determine whether the government can allow younger children to leave home, Chua said.

He said the population of the Philippines is relatively young, at about half or 53 million aged 25 or younger.

Restricting youth from joining adults outside would also weaken consumer spending, Chua said.

However, Chua pushed for face-to-face classes to gradually resume as safely as possible.

An ADB report titled “Cost-Benefit Analysis of Face-to-Face Closing of Schools to Control COVID-19 in the Philippines” published on Tuesday (December 15) said that “Analysis of Policy Options Involved with an Epidemiological Model applied to the case of the Philippines finds that the complete reopening of schools at all levels during January to June 2021 affects the total deaths from COVID-19 by approximately 8 percent ”.

In an analysis, economists David A. Raitzer, Rouselle F. Lavado, Jomar Rabajante, Xylee Javier, Ludigil Garces and Glenita Amorantoa found that “when the new normal is maintained, the overall mortality from COVID-19 since the opening of the school it is approximately 1,500 lives nationally, or about an 8 percent increase from the simulated cumulative value if schools remained closed. “

“The average age at which these deaths occur is 63 years, and this figure represents 0.3 percent of the 2019 mortality in the Philippines,” the ADB report said.

“Closing face-to-face schooling only for those over 15 years of age avoids 60 percent of these deaths and reduces mortality to about 600 lives, while allowing 78 percent of students to attend face-to-face classes,” he said.

In terms of locations, fully resuming face-to-face classes in Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Western Visayas, Central Visayas and Calabarzon would be riskier, according to the report.

“These regions tend to have schools that represent a higher proportion of contacts, more children in the population, more elderly in contact with children at home and / or a weaker medical capacity compared to potential treatment needs,” he added.

But the ADB report also noted that “prolonged school closings do not appear to be especially effective in controlling COVID-19.”

He said that “the pandemic risk for children is limited, as a very small portion of COVID-19 cases diagnosed worldwide and in the Philippines are among those under the age of 20, and serious medical outcomes, including mortality, are rare among children and adolescents. “

“Although children have high rates of contact with each other in schools, they also appear to have lower susceptibility, are infectious for shorter periods, and, on average, have lower infectivity than adults,” ADB said.

Several studies find that children are unlikely to be the drivers of the epidemic and few contact tracing studies have identified large groups of outbreaks traced to student-to-student transmission within schools of COVID-19 where schools have stayed open, ”he said. .

Citing government data as of Nov. 26, the ADB report said the average age of mortality for COVID-19 patients in the country was 62, while those aged 20 and under accounted for less than 10 percent of diagnosed cases, as well as only 2 percent of deaths.

“The evidence on the effects on transmission to older segments of the population is less clear, but suggests limited effectiveness of school closings,” according to the ADB report.

The report said that “there is wide scope to use specific measures to minimize COVID-19 risks from face-to-face classes while benefiting overall health,” especially since “health behavior beyond COVID-19 is heavily conditioned for education “.

“The analysis shows that long-term mortality increases due to less effective face-to-face closure education are many times higher than the number of lives saved by COVID-19 in the short term,” he said.

The economic impact would also be huge, as ADB estimates showed that the current closure of face-to-face classes would cost the economy P1.93 trillion or more than 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for one year.

“In a cost-benefit framework that generously values ​​morbidity and mortality, the costs are approximately 70 times higher than the benefits of COVID-19 control,” the report says.

“There is also a growing appreciation of the costs of school closings to the economy in the short and long term,” he said.

“In the short term, the costs are borne by parents, who must limit participation in the workforce to care for children at home and employees in education, who may lose their jobs. These effects are substantial, “he added.

“For example, the effects of each day the school is closed on short-term GDP growth can be almost as great as each day the workplace is closed. Even more profound is the long-term effect on productivity, ”ADB said.

“The school closings that occurred through mid-2020 may already be enough to reduce the lifetime earnings of current students by 3 percent, equivalent to a long-term reduction in GDP of 1.5 percent that remains in force for many decades. This is many times greater than the short-term economic effect, “he added.

TSB

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