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The next Pentagon chief could cement America’s already tough line of defense over China, with one contender suggesting that US forces could bolster deterrence with the ability to “sink all” Chinese ships “in 72 hours” at sea. of South China.
Michele Flournoy, undersecretary of defense in the Obama administration, has been touted as a possible defense secretary in the cabinet of the president-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.
In an article in Foreign Affairs magazine in June, Flournoy said that as Washington’s ability and resolve to counter Beijing’s military assertiveness in the region declined, the United States needed a strong deterrent to reduce the risk of “miscalculations. “by China’s leaders.
“For example, if the US military had the ability to credibly threaten to sink all of China’s military vessels, submarines and merchant ships in the South China Sea within 72 hours, Chinese leaders might think twice about it. of, say, launching a blockade or an invasion of Taiwan; they would have to wonder if it was worth putting their entire fleet at risk, “Flournoy said.
Diplomatic and defense observers said that realizing such an idea would come at a huge cost, but naming its champion would be a sign that the United States would continue to accumulate military pressure on China.
Collin Koh, a researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said one point was true no matter who took over.
“Regardless of who is in the White House, the ability to maintain credible deterrence and, if necessary, defeat the (People’s Liberation Army) aggression against Taiwan in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, would have been seen as a done, “Koh said.
In the article, Flournoy also emphasized the need for innovation, especially in unmanned systems augmented by artificial intelligence, as well as cyber and anti-missile defense, and resilient command and communication networks.
He said the United States had invested too much in “legacy weapons systems and platforms,” while underinvesting in emerging technologies that would determine who had the upper hand in the future.
“To reestablish credible deterrence from China, the United States must be able to prevent the success of any act of military aggression by Beijing, either by denying the PLA’s ability to achieve its goals or by imposing costs so great that Chinese leaders ultimately decide that the act does not suit them, “he said.
The US military should rely more on smaller, more agile forces, such as unmanned underwater vehicles and highly mobile units that could move around to complicate China’s planning.
But observers said that with the coronavirus pandemic casting a shadow over the future US defense budget, there was greater uncertainty about whether investment could be reallocated from competing programs to carry out such plans.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, said that even if the United States made such a change and increased its deterrence, Beijing’s military plans regarding Taiwan would not change.
“Such a threat could hardly work, because the PLA has already and always taken into account direct US interference in its calculations when planning military operations in Taiwan,” Wu said.
Flournoy also highlighted the United States’ unique advantages over China, a network of allies and partners, and suggested that Washington should reach out to the countries of the region to jointly resist “authoritarian and revisionist” China and its “coercive measures.”
He proposed more regular military exercises with allies and partners, higher officials and military forces deployed in the region in a more dispersed manner, and a portfolio of economic, technological and political measures as well as military ones.
Su Hao, director of the Center for Peace and Strategic Studies at China University of Foreign Affairs, said that compared to Trump’s unilateralism, a Biden administration would obviously prefer collective and multilateral approaches to contain China.
These could include strengthening military ties through the US-Japan-South Korea alliance, the US-Japan-Australia-India “quad,” and in partnership with Southeast Asian countries around the disputed China Sea. Southern.
He said that while the Biden administration will strengthen their alliance ties, a “NATO in Asia” against China is unlikely as Asian countries would avoid outright hostility or confrontation with the region’s largest economy.
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ANC, SCMP, South China Morning Post, US Department of Defense, Michele Flournoy, US, United States, US-China relations, China, Chinese military
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