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The finger immediately began to point: it was the frozen wind turbines that foolishly replaced the traditional sources. No, fossil fuels were to blame. No, Texas’ unregulated power market, unique in the country, had allowed companies to skimp on maintenance and upgrades.
As the hours passed and millions more plunged into the icy darkness, a more sober reality emerged. The largest forced blackout in American history, as this event almost certainly has become, was the result of a systemic and multifaceted failure. There are no promises of when power will be restored, and there is little chance that the episode will not repeat itself in a corner of the country badly affected by climate change.
“This feels like a technical design flaw,” said Michael Webber, who founded Webber Energy Group at the University of Texas at Austin and serves as director of science and technology at French power company Engie.
The power plants were not fully air-conditioned, eliminating generation capacity. Those still standing struggled to get enough fuel, and the shale pits experienced so-called freezes. Many wind turbines stopped rotating. Texas, with a network notoriously isolated from the rest of the US, was unable to ask neighboring states for help.
Still, when the pressure dropped last week and the icy air descended from the north, some saw what was coming and felt they were witnessing a train accident. They blame part of the blame on Ercot, the Texas Electric Reliability Council, which manages the flow of energy to consumers and says the extreme nature of the weather made it difficult to be ready.
“Unfortunately, we were not prepared for this type of cold,” said Texas State Representative Ron Reynolds, whose own home has no power. “They were caught with their pants down and now millions of jeans have no electricity. It’s a matter of life and death. “
Adam Sinn, owner of Aspire Commodities LLC, an energy and gas trader, was among those who wondered why so little was being done. He said that a week ago, when the seven-day outlook came in, Ercot’s own projections showed too little supply to meet growing demand.
“We have been looking this week thinking that they are going to have to cut 10,000 megawatts from consumers,” he said. “I really think Ercot is to blame for this one.” He said there were spare megawatts that didn’t come online. For example, Vistra Corp., a large generator, had 4,000 megawatts offline for maintenance at four plants that could have turned on quickly, he said, citing data from Genscape, Inc.
Sinn said Ercot did not order the megawatts back on or was told no, which should have generated publicity so residents could prepare.
Ercot and Genscape did not respond to requests for comment. Vistra declined to comment.
Whether Ercot knew what to expect was not evident in his messages to the Texans. Over the weekend, recommendations on his official Twitter account included closing blinds and unplugging kitchen utensils that were not being used. “Laundry on Valentine’s Day?” said in another post. “Do not.”
On Tuesday, Dan Woodfin, Ercot’s senior director, attributed the main factors to frozen instruments at natural gas, coal and nuclear plants. He and other Ercot officials said they believed the generators had been better prepared for the cold.
Ercot’s authority is somewhat limited. In 2011, the last time frigid weather caused ongoing outages, it published best practices for power generators, but could not demand anything, said Adrian Shelley, director of the Texas office of Public Citizen, an advocacy group.
Federal power regulators also issued a 357-page report advising generators to winterize their equipment, including insulated pipes.
“The financial incentive is not there to strengthen that infrastructure,” he added. “From a generator perspective, the only incentive is to get power to market as cheaply as possible.”
Energy prices soared over several days to the Texas price limit – a staggering $ 9,000 a megawatt-hour.
A 100-megawatt wind farm in the state that typically could have made nearly $ 40,000 in a two-day period in February could reap more than $ 9.5 million on Monday and Tuesday alone, said Nicholas Steckler, an energy markets analyst at BloombergNEF. On Monday, electricity sales likely totaled $ 10 billion, according to Wood Mackenzie.
While some pointed to wind power as the culprit, as of Tuesday wind power outages accounted for 3.6 to 4.5 gigawatts, or less than 13%, of the 30 to 35 gigawatts of total outages, Woodfin said. by Ercot. Gas produced 35% of the energy in January.
Others said the Texas problems were wide-ranging.
“Everybody wants to blame someone, so they blame Ercot,” Webber said. “But if the gas can’t get out of the ground, is it Ercot’s fault? If we have sloppy building codes that don’t properly insulate homes, is it Ercot’s fault?
It suggests a combination of nationwide upgrades and expansions at a cost of trillions of dollars over decades. About 10% of that should take place in Texas. That’s a lot of money, which is why little was done the last time Texas saw a major test of its grill in the cold a decade ago.
Texas lacks the long-term planning processes that other parts of the country employ. In the east, network operators manage capacity markets that act as insurance policies. Generators are paid to ensure their supplies are available on the hottest and coldest days. If they don’t show up, they face stiff penalties. Texas, by contrast, has left it to prevailing prices and industry.
That unregulated and competitive nature of markets can exacerbate massive price increases. More than 100 electricity providers compete for customers who leave energy companies such as credit cards. They take big risks to attract new customers, offer incredibly low rates, and allow unlimited energy use on weekends. But when wholesale markets fail, they abandon them.
The state also refuses to connect its network with neighbors, partly out of fear that the system will fall under federal supervision and regulation. But its politicians are realizing that independence has a downside.
Natural gas played a huge role in the disaster. Last Thursday, Energy Transfer LP sent a warning to customers on its Transwestern natural gas pipeline: It was going to be cold, and if producers’ shipments deviated from their normally scheduled flows, they should inform the operator.
Perhaps the North Dakota oil field could withstand freezing temperatures, but the infrastructure that connects the Permian Basin in west Texas and southeastern New Mexico is exposed to the elements. Drilling liquids freeze inside pipes, forcing wells and gas processing plants to shut down.
By Friday, temperatures had dropped to 24 degrees in Dallas. Texans were told to start saving energy. Physical gas prices soared to more than $ 500 in Oklahoma from less than $ 4 at the beginning of the week. As of Tuesday, they had doubled to roughly $ 1,000 per million British thermal units. Texas Governor Greg Abbott asked a major gas exporter to limit its consumption.
All of this is not to mention the human cost.
“It’s mentally draining, the constant thought of wondering, ‘When will the power come back, how can I get us out of this situation?'” Said Alton McCarver, a 30-year-old IT worker, who drove his family to his Dodge Charger during hours to turn on the heater and charge phones. “It has been an uphill battle to keep warm.” – Bloomberg
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