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(CNN) – The path in the US Senate to convict Donald Trump is extremely narrow, with a growing number of Republicans expressing confidence that the party will acquit the former president of a charge that he incited the deadly insurrection designed to stop. the electoral victory of the president of the USA, Joe Biden.
After Democratic leaders announced that they would begin the process to begin impeachment on Monday, Republicans became highly critical of the proceedings and made it clear that they saw virtually no chance of at least 17 Republicans joining 50 Democrats to condemn Trump and also prevent him from fleeing the office again.
In interviews with more than a dozen Republican senators, the consensus was clear: The majority of Republicans are likely to acquit Trump, and only a few actually risk changing to convict the former president, unless more evidence emerges or the political dynamics within your party. change drastically. However, Republicans are also pointing out that as more time has passed since the riot, some of the day’s emotions have cooled and they are ready to move on.
“The chances of getting a conviction are practically nil,” said Senator Roger Wicker, R-Mississippi.
“I don’t know what the vote will be, but I think the two-thirds chance is nil,” said Senator John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas and a member of his party’s leadership, who called the Democratic push to start the trial as “vindictive. . “
“From listening to the dynamic – and everything up to this point – it’s going to be hard to get even a handful,” said Sen. Mike Braun, a Republican from Indiana, referring to potential GOP defectors. “I think many are confused by the fact that we are doing this, and everyone is of the opinion that it is a kind of constitutional concern.”
Republican arguments are now coming into focus more clearly, claiming that the procedures are unconstitutional for trying a former president and claiming that the trial is moving too short a time frame to give Trump due process, claims that Democrats flatly reject. But those arguments, Republicans believe, will allow them a way out to convict Trump without endorsing his conduct in the run-up to the deadly mob that looted the Capitol on Jan.6. And Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is likely to land in the same spot. so much of his conference, Republican senators believe, though the Republican leader has said he would listen to arguments first before deciding how to vote.
Politically, most Republicans are not eager to break ranks and provoke the kind of attacks that came in the way of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump last week for the second time in his presidency, this time under the charge of inciting an insurrection.
“Many see it as a game of shirts and furs,” said one Republican senator, referring to how many of his colleagues see the process as strictly partisan.
For Democrats, the calculation is also complicated. If they seek a longer trial, even during the 21 days of Trump’s first impeachment trial in 2020, with witnesses, they could satisfy some Republicans who argue that the trial should provide an adequate opportunity for Trump to make his case. However, doing so could consume the first full month of Biden’s presidency, while a shorter trial would alienate some Republicans.
“I am not in favor of witch hunts,” said Cornyn, who noted that he would be less likely to be convicted if it were a short trial without witnesses. “This should be a fair and respectable process because whatever we do, it’s not just about President Trump. It’s about setting a new precedent and, as you know, once we get things done around here and there is a precedent for it. , that’s the rule for the next time this happens. “
Among the most likely Republican defectors are Senators Mitt Romney of Utah, Susan Collins of Maine, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. But Republican leaders closely monitoring his conference don’t see much of a chance that the list will grow to 17 senators unless something drastically changes or more is known about Trump’s role in stoking the violent mob.
“There are less than a handful of Republicans at stake,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, the Republican from South Carolina who is pressuring his colleagues to stick with Trump or risk “destroying” his party.
And even some who had been seen as potential swing votes criticize Democrats for trying to start the trial immediately, rather than sticking to McConnell’s proposed schedule for postponing court proceedings until the end of February.
“It’s very troublesome, I would say, for the people who are bringing this up now from a time point of view,” said Senate Minority Leader John Thune, the No. 2 Republican, who has criticized Trump’s conduct and also he is ready for re-election. in 2022. “I think it will be very important whether or not there is due process.”
Murkowski added: “I think what McConnell established was eminently reasonable, in terms of making sure that we had a process. There has to be a process and the process has to be fair.”
Collins, the Maine Republican who has been highly critical of Trump’s conduct, said she is consulting with “constitutional scholars” about the proceedings. When asked about the Republican senators’ assessment that Trump will almost certainly not be convicted, he said: “That’s not an unreasonable conclusion, but I don’t know.”
McConnell himself has privately viewed Trump’s handling of the riots with disdain and told people that they at least amounted to a chargeable crime, while even saying that the mob was “provoked” by the former president. But McConnell has made clear to his colleagues that he is undecided, and several Republicans told CNN this week that he could risk losing his seat at the top of the Senate Republican conference if he votes to convict Trump.
And in the past two days, McConnell has publicly defended the case to give Trump’s team more time to prepare. With much of the Republican conference now lined up against conviction, Republicans speculate that the Republican leader will likely vote for acquittal as well.
One of the key obstacles Democratic House administrators will have with Republicans is convincing them that a trial is constitutional, as a group of Senate Republicans have argued in recent days that a trial for a former president is now being a private citizen is unconstitutional. Such an argument could give Republicans a reason to vote for Trump’s acquittal without addressing his conduct around the uprising on Capitol Hill earlier this month.
“I think it is obvious that post-presidential impeachment has never occurred in the history of the country for a reason, which is unconstitutional, sets a bad precedent for the presidency and continues to divide the nation,” Graham said Friday.
It is a debate that enters unprecedented territory, as the Senate has never conducted an impeachment trial for a president who has left office because such a scenario never arose. But Democrats have singled out jurists at both ends of the political spectrum who say a trial is constitutional. Legal analysts say there is precedent for a Senate impeachment of a former official, as the Senate tried Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876 after he resigned just before the House voted to impeach him.
“It makes no sense that a president, or any official, could commit a heinous crime against our country and then be allowed to resign to avoid accountability and a vote to disqualify him from future office,” Schumer said Friday.
Republican Trump supporters oppose it.
Sen. Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican who has thrown a pushback by joining House Republicans in trying to overturn the results of the Pennsylvania election, distanced himself from Trump’s comments at the Jan.6 rally, where he urged his followers to go to the Capitol that day, calling them “inflammatory” and “irresponsible.”
But when asked how they should hold Trump accountable, Hawley said, “Breaking the Constitution and using an unconstitutional process is not the way to do it.”
CNN’s Ali Zaslav, Ali Main and Olanma Mang contributed to this report.
This story was first published on CNN.com “Prospects for Convicting Trump Erode as Republican Party Speaks Against Senate Impeachment Procedures”
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