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MANILA, Philippines – A “clear upward trend” in Covid-19 cases has been observed in Metro Manila following increased public activity during the Christmas season, the Octa Research team said.
In his latest report, Octa said that local government units in the National Capital Region (NCR) will need to implement measures to reverse the uptrend “before the pandemic gets out of control.”
According to the research team, the null R or Covid-19 replication number on the NCR has risen to 1.17 as of January 10.
“There is now a clear upward trend, shown as a yellow line, and if this upward trend continues, local governments will need to implement measures to reverse this direction before the pandemic gets out of control,” the group said. investigation.
The last time the null R, which indicates the average number of people who can get the disease from an infected person, was greater than 1 was on Dec. 21, Octa noted.
A reproduction number greater than 1 means that the infection is spreading to more people, as one infected person could infect one or more people.
Octa said the R-zero during the holidays stayed below 1 as the tests dropped by more than 40%.
Now that the testing centers are resuming normal operations, the number of new cases has risen to more than 400, the group added.
Meanwhile, the positivity rate in Metro Manila over the past week remained at 4%, which is below the 5% recommended by the World Health Organization.
Octa Research warned the government of the possibility of a “significant increase” in COVID-19 cases in the coming weeks in Metro Manila due to the increase in social gatherings.
He said the likelihood of a newer and more infectious Covid-19 variant may already be in the Philippines and that “super spread” events such as the Black Nazarene celebration may contribute to the possible increase.
He then urged the government to further intensify its testing, tracking and isolation efforts. More effective and stricter border controls should also be implemented to prevent the transmission of Covid-19 at airports and seaports, he added.
“Given the real threat of an increase in the NCR, all LGUs involved should also begin preparing public health systems and personnel, and increasing health care capacity to deal with the influx of cases in the coming weeks,” Octa Research said.
The research group also urged the government to accelerate the procurement of safe and effective Covid-19 vaccines and to efficiently implement an immunization program.
As of January 12, the total number of Covid-19 cases in the Philippines reached 491,258, including 23,532 “active” cases, as well as 458,172 recovered patients and 9,554 deaths.
KGA
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