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After a year of countless twists and turns in American politics, 2021 is shaping up to be a year of significant change.
President Donald Trump is leaving the White House on January 20, leaving behind a Republican Party in search of a way forward with or without him as the center of attention.
President-elect Joe Biden will reenter the Washington political scene that he hopes to dominate after years of intense polarization and will face resistance not only from Republicans, but also from his own party.
Here are four things to watch as a new year begins in American politics:
Biden’s first 100 days
As with any new presidential administration, all attention will be on what is accomplished in the first 100 days: an arbitrary measure, to be sure, but one that politicians use to set an agenda, and one that experts use to measure. the performance of a new president. initial governance.
Biden has unveiled an ambitious plan, primarily in reaction to Trump’s policies as president, but particularly to his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
The president-elect said he will ask Americans to wear masks after he is sworn in as president on January 20. “Only 100 days to mask, not forever. One hundred days, “he told CNN on December 3. A few days later, Biden promised that he and his healthcare team will receive” at least 100 million injections of the COVID vaccine into the arms of the American people in the first 100 days. ” and “will work to see that most of our schools can be open by the end of my first 100 days.”
Biden has also said that he will rejoin the World Health Organization. Trump retired in June.
On foreign policy, Biden has repeatedly pointed out that Trump’s “America First” philosophy will be a thing of the past and has vowed to rebuild the alliances that he said suffered under Trump.
Biden has vowed to rejoin the Paris climate accord on his first day as president. Trump abandoned that deal in 2017. The new president is also expected to undo many of Trump’s executive actions on the environment, as well as on immigration.
“On the first day, I will end Trump’s unconstitutional ban on Muslims,” Biden told a Muslim advocacy group in October. Also on the list of expected immigration-related reversals: ending the emergency declaration and diverting funds to build the wall on the southern border of the United States, restore protections for children who were illegally brought into the United States, and end Trump’s tougher asylum laws.
Additionally, Biden and Congressional Democrats are expected to propose more pandemic stimulus funds, try to undo Trump’s tax cuts that benefited the rich, expand Obamacare, and push through police and criminal justice reforms.
Will Congress do something?
Democrats will be in control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate when January 20 rolls around, but that doesn’t mean things are going smoothly, despite Biden’s optimism that he can restore bipartisanship in Washington. .
Even if Democrats win the two runoff elections in Georgia on January 5, resulting in a 50-50 Senate with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris in the runoff vote, control of the party in both the Senate and the House. it will be so rare that it will not be easy to get the bills to Biden’s desk.
A 50-50 Democratic majority Senate gives any Democrat an inordinate amount of power to derail partisan legislation, leaving Biden and Democratic leaders to draft bills that can attract at least a few Republican senators or are drafted to guarantee 50 Democratic votes. Holding onto the former will likely alienate the more progressive Democrats, such as Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. And trying to come up with an idea that is acceptable to the 50 Democrats without defections will not be easier.
Biden vows to work with Republicans in Congress, including Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell on the left. [File: Zach Gibson/AP Photo]
Combine that with a Democratic-controlled House that will have the smallest majority of any party in 90 years, and in this age of extreme partisanship it could become a recipe for stagnation or, at the very least, a Congress that cannot move. . any innovative legislation.
Another key factor to consider as 2021 progresses: Members of Congress are running for reelection, which includes all members of the House and one-third of the Senate.
“[L]Lawmakers will always think about the next election in 2022, a midterm vote that generally goes against the party that occupies the White House, making those members of undecided or close districts, most of them from the moderate wing of the party, be especially anxious and fearful of controversial issues or votes, ”wrote Norm Ornstein, an American Enterprise Institute scholar, in the Washington Post this month.
Democratic resistance
A key problem for Democrats is that they have not yet decided in which direction they want to take policy. As young progressives grew in numbers and became more vocal after the 2018 midterm elections, they have been trying to force the party further to the left. But with significant losses in House districts, as well as more than 200 counties won by Barack Obama and then Trump in 2016 and 2020, party moderates blame progressives for alienating middle voters.
These struggles unfolded during the presidential primaries and continue during Biden’s transition with progressives attacking old-guard Democratic leaders.
“For Democrats to succeed, [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and the rest of the Democratic leaders in Congress must have clear eyes on their failures. Even as we celebrate the historic defeat of Trump by President-elect Biden, they must be held responsible for these disappointing voting results, ”wrote a coalition of progressive groups in a November post-election memorandum.
From left to right, US Representatives Ayanna Pressley, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Rashida Tlaib are among the progressives who criticize the Democratic establishment leaders. [File: Steve Ruark/AP Photo]
The establishment and moderate Democrats argue that progressives’ unwavering insistence on unpopular political ideas like “defunding the police” and the Green New Deal are not only discouraging moderate voters, but are making Democrats easy political targets. for Republicans.
“We have to commit to never saying the words ‘take funds from the police’ again,” said Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who won an extremely close re-election race in November, in a post-election conference call with her fellow Democrats. “We must not use the words ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ anymore.”
“If we are classifying [Election Day] as a success and we are running this way again, we will break down in 2022, “he added.
With progressives and moderates pointing out that these struggles will continue during Biden’s tenure, it appears that some political lockdowns could be self-inflicted for Democrats and not just as a result of the parties fighting against each other.
The political future of Trump and the Republican Party
While the Democrats ‘internal political battles may affect whether something is done in Washington in 2021, the Republicans’ own political battles will determine their future and who will be the party’s key leaders going forward.
Certainly the immediate focus will be on what Trump does when he leaves office and how involved he remains in politics. If he continues to be the center of the party’s orbit, especially if he announces a presidential bid in 2024, it will be a key factor in determining the direction the party takes, especially considering that Trump remains extremely popular with Republican voters.
Trump has not been shy about threatening Republicans who he feels have angered him politically, even calling his party leaders “pathetic” this week for not backing him strongly enough in his efforts to reverse the elections.
… .And Congressmen / Congressmen elected. I think they forgot!
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 29, 2020
There is a long list of Republicans, including Vice President Mike Pence, the sons of Trump, numerous senators, governors, and other Republican officials from the US, who will surely seek to make a name for themselves as Trump’s heirs or as advocates of following a path. away from Trumpism.
Vice President Mike Pence, left, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, center, and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley are just a few of the Republicans expected to try to raise their profile next year. . [File: Chase Stevens/AP Photo]
Still, said Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who has spoken out regularly against Trump and is considered a potential presidential candidate for 2024, Trump will continue to have enormous influence on the party for the foreseeable future.
“[T]there is no doubt that he is not going to leave, and a large part of the Republican Party will follow his Twitter page and hear what he has to say, “Hogan said Sunday on ABC News.
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