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A Chinese study of antibodies against the coronavirus found that almost half a million people may have had Covid-19 in Wuhan, a figure that is 10 times the official figure.
According to the antibody prevalence study, the infection rate was also much higher in Wuhan than in surrounding areas, suggesting that the virus had been well contained in the city where the outbreak began.
The study, conducted by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), analyzed antibodies in blood serum samples from around 34,000 people in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province, as well as in the cities of Beijing. and Shanghai and Guangdong provinces. , Jiangsu, Sichuan and Liaoning.
According to the CDC statement, the researchers found an antibody rate of 4.43% among the population of Wuhan, home to about 11 million people. The suggested infection of more than 487,000 people far exceeds the 50,354 officially reported cases.
The city of Wuhan was subjected to an extraordinary 76-day lockdown on January 23, which was repeated in various forms in other Hubei cities, putting approximately 56 million people in effective quarantine.
The CDC said antibody rates were much lower outside of Wuhan, just 0.44% in other Hubei cities, and only two people identified as carrying antibodies among more than 12,000 tested outside of Hubei.
“The results of the survey show that the population of our country is generally at a low level of infection, indicating that the control of the epidemic, with Wuhan as the main battlefield, has been successful and has effectively prevented the spread. large-scale epidemic, “he added. said.
The CDC’s findings added to previous reports that suggested infection rates in China were higher than reported.
In April, authorities revised up Wuhan’s fatality count by 50%, which they said was the result of incorrect or delayed reports and not because the information had been removed.
Also in April, a study by Hong Kong academics noted that the initial diagnostic criteria for identifying the disease were very narrow and were repeatedly revised as new information about the disease became available and laboratory testing capacity expanded. . That study estimated that more than 232,000 people may have been infected in the first wave of Covid-19 in mainland China, four times the official figures.
Registration and reporting on officials’ case numbers were strained in numerous countries, but China in particular was accused of a lack of transparency and has targeted doctors and journalists who tried to spread information about the outbreak. The World Health Organization will send a fact-finding mission to Wuhan in the new year, with other governments, including Australia, pushing for it to be robust and independent.
The CDC study was published online Monday, but it does not appear to have been published in any peer-reviewed journal. Their results align with local media reports in May that seroepidemiological sampling surveys had found a “higher than expected” antibody rate of 5-6% among 11,000 people in Wuhan. The study did not specify exactly when the survey was conducted, but said it was a month after the first wave of outbreaks.
Life in much of China, including Wuhan, has largely returned to normal, but authorities continue to fight sporadic outbreaks. Health authorities reported 27 new cases on Tuesday, up from 21 the day before. It included 15 local broadcasts in Beijing and Liaoning, where several districts are under emergency measures to stop the outbreaks.
Authorities have also enacted new travel restrictions ahead of the lunar new year, the region’s biggest holiday that sees widespread travel and tourism. The spring festival, which had around 415 million domestic trips in 2019, will run from January 28 to March 8.
Local authorities have urged people to limit gatherings and keep traveling to nearby areas. Civil servants and employees of state-owned companies in Beijing were asked to set an example and stay in the city during the holiday period, Beijing party chief Cai Qi said last week, according to the Global Times.