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Dozens of countries have banned travel from the UK in an effort to contain a new variant of Covid-19 first reported in England.
The new mutation will be called VUI-202012/01, the UK’s first “Investigational Variant” in December 2020. As scientists seek more information on the variant, its impact is already being felt, with dozens of countries imposing restrictions on UK travelers.
Here’s what we know so far about the Covid-19 variant:
What is a variant and why are officials concerned about it? A variant occurs when the genetic makeup of a virus changes. All viruses mutate over time, and new variants are common, even for the new coronavirus.
Like other variants, this one carries a genetic fingerprint that makes it easy to trace, and it turns out to be one that is now widespread in south-east England. That alone does not necessarily mean that a variant is more contagious or dangerous.
But scientists who advised the UK government have estimated that this variant could be up to 70% more effective at spreading than others. Peter Horby, chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group (NERVTAG), said Monday that experts “are now very confident that this variant has a transmission advantage” over other variants.
The World Health Organization said Tuesday that changes to the variant include 14 key mutations and that some of them “may influence the transmissibility of the virus in humans,” though it added that more laboratory research is needed.
Where did the variant originate and how has it taken hold? The new variant is believed to have originated in southeastern England, according to the WHO. Public Health England (PHE) says that backtracking, using genetic evidence, suggests that the variant first emerged in England in September. It then circulated at very low levels until mid-November.
Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said on Saturday that the variant was responsible for 60% of new infections in London, which have almost doubled in the last week alone.
Several experts have also suggested that this new variant could have been amplified due to a superpropagation event, which means that the current increase in cases could have also been caused by human behavior.
Is it the deadliest new variant? At the moment, there is no evidence to suggest that the new variant is more deadly, according to Whitty and the WHO, although it is too early to tell.
Several experts have pointed out that, in some cases, mutations of the virus that increase transmissibility are accompanied by a decrease in virulence and mortality rates.
“As viruses are transmitted, those that allow greater virological ‘success’ can be selected, which changes the properties of the virus over time. This generally leads to more transmission and less virulence,” Martin Hibberd, professor of diseases emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, he told SMC.
Find out more about the UK variant of the coronavirus here.
