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The OCTA research team from the University of the Philippines (UP) believes that the Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ) in the country could be re-imposed, if the average of 4,000 cases per day is reached again.
In a briefing, Butch Ong of UP OCTA warned that the upper limit of his projection this year of 500,000 could be reached by the end of the year or in January. The low end of his projections this year is 450,000 total cases.
Guido David of the OCTA investigation team said that Covid-19 cases are increasing in Metro Manila. The number of reproduction has reached 1.12, higher than in recent weeks.
“The increase in cases is beginning. We can’t really say that the increase is here. It’s definitely still in the early stages. [But] we can still get it down, we still have a chance to keep it from reaching 4,000 [cases per day]”Ong said in a mix of Filipino and English.
David said that Covid-19 cases are on the rise particularly in the northern parts of Metro Manila such as Caloocan, Valenzuela, Malabon, Quezon City, and other areas in the middle of the megacity, including Makati City.
Covid-19 cases in southern Metro Manila, such as Muntinlupa, Las Piñas, Parañaque and Pasay, have not increased that much, according to David.
However, Ong said that Covid-19 cases are expected to increase further after December 25 or after January 1, when Filipinos begin to return to their workplaces after the holidays.
This, Ong said, is where the government and Filipinos, especially those who live and work in Metro Manila, need to be vigilant. Following health protocols will prevent the spread of Covid-19 after the holidays.
“As long as we don’t reach 4,000 yet, because 4,000 is like the critical limit of cases for us to return to the MECQ, as it happened in August. We reached about 4,000 cases and then our health system couldn’t handle it anymore, ”David said, however.
“As long as we do not reach that level yet, we will not have to return to MECQ. What we want to avoid is a stricter lockdown and we have seen that we can actually reduce cases even without MECQ, ”he added.
The National Economic Development and Development Authority previously estimated that around 4.5 million Filipinos were left without work this year, in large part due to strict lockdowns put in place by the government to combat the spread of Covid-19.
At the height of the closures in April, a total of 7.228 million Filipinos were unemployed (for an unemployment rate of 17.6 percent), the highest since the government revised estimates from the Labor Force Survey in 2005. .
