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An empty St. Pancras train station in London on December 20.
Photo: Getty Images
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On Saturday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson instituted the UK’s toughest coronavirus restrictions since the initial shutdown in March, banning holiday gatherings from more than one household and closing all non-essential shops in an area that includes greater London and much of southeastern England. The reason for caution is a new active COVID-19 mutation on the island, which has helped the rate of new infections nearly double in the past two weeks.
“This virus spreads more easily,” UK chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance said on Saturday. “And therefore more measures are needed to keep it under control.”
Neighboring nations agree. Although the virus strain is not expected to be resistant to vaccines released earlier this month, France, Spain, Italy and several other European nations have temporarily banned travel from the UK as scientists race to learn more about the mutation. . Below is an introduction to the political and public health ramifications of the development in question.
The variation found in the UK, known as “VUI – 202012/01” was first identified there in mid-September, according to the World Health Organization. Its mutations have occurred in the genetic material that controls the spike protein, allowing COVID and other similar viruses to penetrate host cells and cause infection.
According to the UK’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, there are 23 changes in the genetic material of the virus, an unusually large number that appear to be helping it spread more quickly. British officials have now estimated that “VUI – 202012/01” is up to 70 percent more transmittable, a figure that is based on models but has yet to be confirmed in laboratory experiments. Although there is no evidence to date that the strain causes more intense disease or leads to a higher death rate, faster transmission means more cases, which can lead to a higher rate of hospitalization.
In general, viruses are prone to detect small genetic changes as they move through a host population. “Viruses that encode their genome in RNA, such as SARS-CoV-2, HIV and influenza, tend to detect mutations rapidly as they are copied within their hosts, because the enzymes that copy RNA tend to make mistakes. “. Nature explains writer Ewen Callaway.
Scientists have been tracking minor changes in the COVID-19 genetic code since the start of the pandemic, and at least 1,000 variants have been detected so far. But the change in the spike protein found in south-east England represents one of the first mutations in the coronavirus that has made it more infectious.
As the Wall street journal notes, this is not the first time that COVID mutations have resulted in a more transmissible strain of the virus:
In July, scientists described a variant that eventually displaced an older strain of coronavirus to become the dominant strain in the global pandemic. Experiments showed that the variant, known as G614, replicated more rapidly, but appeared to be just as susceptible to antibodies that attack the older strain and was not associated with more serious disease.
“Our working assumption from all scientists is that the response to the vaccine should be adequate for this virus,” Vallance said in a briefing on Sunday. Therefore, the strain that has shut down the south east of England will not cut off the inoculation effort that began on December 8.
American scientists at the Walter Reed Army Research Institute are still studying the mutation, but Dr. Nelson Michael, director of the institute’s Infectious Disease Research Center, agreed that current vaccines will likely be effective against the new variant. . “It is logical that this mutation is not a threat, but you never know. We still have to be diligent and keep looking, “Michael told CNN.
However, microbiologists who spoke to NBC News shared concerns that the virus could eventually grow to become resistant to vaccines. “While it may not be really resistant, it may not take as many changes after this to get it there,” said Ravindra Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge. Simon Clarke, associate professor of cell microbiology at the University of Reading, said the COVID vaccine could eventually become a flu vaccine, requiring an updated version every year.
On Sunday, the Netherlands and Belgium were the first countries to suspend air travel from the UK. They were soon joined by Austria, Germany, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Israel, while the French ban also seems to apply to travel through the English Channel. On Monday, the European Union will meet to discuss a coordinated effort.
Before Boris Johnson announced the new restrictions on Saturday, the United States already blocked travel for most non-US citizens who had recently been to the United Kingdom, Ireland, Brazil and 26 other European nations. According to a report from the Telegraph The day before Johnson’s announcement, President Trump was considering lifting that ban, although the lockdown may change the calculus of that decision.
Scientists in South Africa have detected a strain that shares one of the British coronavirus mutations in up to 90 percent of samples that have been genetically sequenced since mid-November. Evidence suggests that the two variations have arisen separately, according to molecular epidemiologist Emma Hodcroft. Although the variant has not been linked to more severe cases, it is associated with higher viral loads in swab tests, meaning it is also more transmissible.
South Africa, the worst-affected nation on the continent, is currently experiencing a second wave driven in part by this more virulent strain and in part by behavior that has undermined public health measures during the pandemic, including a recent party in a coastal city. in the Indian Ocean, where more than 1,000 attendees have already tested positive for COVID-19. At a WHO meeting earlier this month, scientists reported that the new variant accounted for 80 to 90 percent of infections in South Africa.
This publication has been updated.
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