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“Only when vaccination programs progress can we expect the expected rebound in Southeast Asia.”
Southeast Asia, the most vibrant economic region in the world until COVID-19 hit, has completely reversed its growth pattern. After years of spectacular growth rates, the individual economies of Southeast Asian nations are contracting, and tourism and trade are plummeting due to restricted global travel and reduced consumption. The Asian Development Bank, in its latest report, forecasts that the Philippine economy will contract 8.5 percent this year due to the prolonged impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the deepest contraction among Southeast Asian economies this year. The rest of the region is not doing well either. Thailand’s economy is set to contract 7.8 percent, while Singapore is set to contract 6.2 percent. Malaysia and Indonesia are projected to fall 6 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. The ADB expects Vietnam to be the only country to escape the region’s recession with growth of 2.3 percent. Southeast Asian economies overall will decline 4.4 percent this year. The COVID-19 outbreak and the ensuing containment measures have taken their toll on the economies of Southeast Asia. Even the anticipated rally in 2021 is less optimistic as predicted by the ADB. Southeast Asia is now expected to expand 5.2 percent next year compared to the 5.5 percent growth the bank forecast in September.
Southeast Asia’s economic recovery in 2021 will depend on how quickly the region can access effective vaccines that are now initially distributed in the UK. Developed nations like the United States and the rest of Europe will receive the first injection of the vaccines, along with Russia and China. The population of most of Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, is likely to receive the vaccine sometime in the first quarter of 2021. In the meantime, this region will have to continue to place restrictions on travel and the economy as a whole while expect widespread expansion. immunization. The same quarantine restrictions are sure to be eased in the short term as the vaccination program in Southeast Asia advances. The economies of the region will reopen further and only then can we expect the anticipated rebound in Southeast Asia.
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