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As China shows its muscles globally, the US-Japan alliance is the ideal starting point for the incoming Joe Biden administration to rebuild the strategic, economic, technological and governance rules to control huge ambitions. from Beijing, analysts and former US officials said Monday. .
While the United States shares a growing interest with Europe, Canada, Southeast Asia and Australia in countering various parts of China’s global expansion plan, none fit as naturally in all of these areas as Washington and Tokyo, they added.
Importantly, Japan has kept the torch burning as the Trump administration withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade group, got into fights with long-time allies, and avoided global cooperation under its “America First” policy, they added.
“When the United States and Japan work together, we can shape the environment in which Chinese power grows,” said Joseph Nye, former US undersecretary of defense and former dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
“Our alliance [is] going far beyond security … into technology and economic assistance, the infrastructure to counter the China Belt and Road Initiative [BRI]You will see that Japanese leadership is crucial. “
Former Under Secretary of State Richard Armitage, now chairman of consultancy Armitage International, and Nye spoke at a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) event alongside a report the think tank released Monday on leveraging partnerships in the Pacific and beyond.
The CSIS report, “The US-Japan Alliance in 2020: An Equal Alliance with a Global Agenda,” comes as the incoming Biden administration appears poised to make coalitions, economic groups, and multilateral organizations central. in your strategy to roll back a more assertive strategy. China.
But after four years of trans-Pacific insults and all-out fights over trade and security, it also fits in with concerns in some quarters that the new administration will be too accommodating to Beijing in trying to show results on climate change and the fight against climate change. pandemic.
“I don’t think the Biden administration is soft on China. Some of the people who are being called up for assistant secretary positions in both the Pentagon and the State Department are among the toughest in China, ”Armitage said.
“If the Biden administration wanted to be soft on China, which I don’t think they would, the attitude on Capitol Hill of both Democrats and Republicans has changed markedly in China, and there isn’t much pro-China lobby left. in Washington. So the short answer is no. I don’t think there is anything to worry about. “
While the Biden administration has yet to come up with an alliance strategy, a series of overlapping groupings appears to have Washington and Tokyo at their core, said Zack Cooper, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, who was part of a study. group that helped compile the report. Thus, any effective Asian security alliance could involve the current four “quadruple” countries: the US, Japan, India and Australia.
“There are probably not many others willing to challenge China,” Cooper said in an interview. “If you look at the problems we have with China, the United States and Japan, in some cases, they are the only two countries that agree on all elements.”
Potential mixes in the other three areas, he added, could include: in economics, some version of the Group of Seven nations with the largest Asian representation; in technology, some version of the current Group of Twelve economically advanced countries, but likely to include Finland given its potential importance in 5G networks; and in democracy and governance, a coalition created by the Biden team.
But efforts to forge more united fronts in various areas will not be easy, analysts said. Asia already has too many overlapping groups with poorly defined missions and ideally these should be refined and simplified.
And while China has a clear vision of its goals, including its desire to shape the global standards outlined in its China Standards 2035 plan, getting other economies to cooperate and agree is a more daunting challenge.
In the defense alliance between the United States and Japan, the American military bases remain controversial to the Japanese public. Japan has not clearly defined its missile defense objectives or how aggressive its response would be if US and Japanese forces are attacked. And the cooperation between the two sides has many organizational, operational and hierarchical gaps, experts said.
“The United States and Japan really have to move quickly to address some of the anachronisms in our command and control relationships,” said Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia at CSIS and former special assistant to the president for national security affairs. “And boy, are we paying a price for that now.”
Experts predicted that the “Quad” group will be less important under the Biden administration than it was under the Trump administration, in part because the outgoing administration has made it a priority, possibly at the expense of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. , or Asean.
As with many parts of the global alliance network, revitalizing ties with Asean will take work after China broke the group’s consensus by secede from Cambodia after a United Nations court sided with the Philippines against China in the territorial claims of the South China Sea.
“While the ‘Quad’ is an important part of our engagement there, I think we will have to look for other networks as well,” said Kara Bue, founding partner of Armitage International. “We are going to have to be very agile and focused.”
The report, the fifth in a series looking at the US-Japan alliance dating back to 2000, also recommends that Japan join the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network, which involves the US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, provided safeguards are in place. so that parliamentarians do not leak information.
Japanese security experts said that while many nations welcome a more globally engaged Washington under the incoming Biden administration, times have changed and the United States should share in the leadership work of forging coalitions and overseeing political initiatives.
“Due to China’s unilateral revisionist actions, there is a growing and clear demand for security by the United States in Asia,” Satoru Mori, professor of global politics at Hosei University in Tokyo, said in an email. “The United States used to take on these two roles solely on its own, but now is the time for America’s main allies like Japan to take on these tasks.”
Toshihiro Nakayama, a professor at Tokyo-based Keio University and a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, added: “An effective alliance is the only way to counter, complicate and roll back China’s aggressive behavior.
“We cannot stop the rise of China and we should not try. However, we should try to maintain the liberal rules-based international order with the greatest intensity with as many partners as possible. “
At the same time, experts said, it is important to strike a balance to prevent Beijing from feeling threatened. This occurs as European countries become increasingly wary of China’s divide and rule tactics in eastern and southern Europe, Australia and Canada feel the full brunt of Beijing’s anger and BRI countries grapple with economic dependence.
“There is a great opportunity for us here in the United States, in addition to Japan, to work with Europe,” said Matthew Goodman, senior vice president for economics at CSIS and former director of international economics for the National Security Council.
“Not to try to isolate or contain China, of course, but to find a way to address some of those real concerns while still interacting with China.”
ANC, SCMP, South China Morning Post, United States, United States, China, United States-China, United States-China relations, United States-Japan, United States-Japan relations, United States China Japan
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