[ad_1]
Half a million people are likely to die from coronavirus in the United States in April, according to a disturbing new forecast from a University of Washington model.
If the masks’ mandates are relaxed, that total will rise to 770,000 by April 1.
In an update on Friday, they announced that estimates show the peak of deaths will be in mid-January, with 3,000 people dying a day.
Vaccines will help, but will only save 9,000 lives by April 1. The IHME concluded that another 14,000 lives can be saved with a more rapid expansion of vaccines aimed at high-risk people.
Amid the devastating news, Donald Trump has been conspicuously absent from the discussion, preferring instead to tweet about how the election was “stolen” from him. His press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, insists that he has been working behind the scenes to accelerate the development and logistics of vaccines, saying “the results speak for themselves.”
He has planned 20 Christmas gatherings at the White House, where social media photos of the parties already held show crowds of unmasked attendees standing close together.
IHME investigators found that state governors play the most important role in avoiding mass casualties.
If they order the use of masks, increasing their use to 95 percent, 66,000 lives will be saved by April 1.
Today, 71 percent of people always wear a mask when leaving home, but it varies by state.
In South Dakota and Wyoming, researchers found that mask use was less than 50 percent.
California currently has the strictest restrictions, while Florida currently has none.
In Oklahoma, Alaska, South Dakota, Iowa, Idaho, and Missouri, there are only minimal restrictions: school closings.
The IHME team uses a hybrid modeling approach, incorporating elements from disease transmission and statistical modeling, to inform governments and policy advisers about the likely impact of their decisions. The team uses data from local and national governments, hospital networks and associations, the World Health Organization, and third-party aggregators, among other sources.
They found that Covid-19 was the leading cause of death in the US for the past week, outpacing heart disease, all cancers, strokes, and kidney disease.
By the end of the year, the IHME expects Covid to be second only to heart disease as the leading cause of death, with 348,311 predicted death, compared to 557,600 from heart disease.
