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As polling places across the country begin to report turnout numbers, signs are that voter turnout in the 2020 election will be the highest seen in 120 years since the 1900 election, when turnout it was 73.7 percent.
The population eligible to vote in the U.S. prior to the Nov.3 election was just over 239 million people, according to the U.S. Elections Project, with 160 million people voting, which makes the 2020 turnout an expected 66.9 percent.
This would place turnout above the 1960 election between Republican candidate Richard Nixon and Democratic candidate John F. Kennedy, when 63.8 percent of eligible voters cast their votes.
“That’s not a typo,” tweeted Professor Michael McDonald of the University of Florida and director of the Elect Project. “The 2020 presidential election had the highest turnout rate in 120 years. There is still a great deal of guesswork about the ballots to be counted. I will continue to refine these estimates over the next few weeks.”
The record turnout was recorded in 1876, when 81.8 percent of voters cast their ballot. That choice was between Republican Rutherford B. Hayes and Democratic opponent Samuel Tilden. Neither man won a majority, and after the House of Representatives established a commission, Hayes won the presidency.
More than 195 million Americans would have had to cast their votes to break that record. Although not technically impossible, it is highly unlikely that it will come close to this figure. In the 1900 election, a rematch between Republican President William McKinley and Democratic challenger William Jennings Bryan, 73.7 percent of the population eligible to vote cast their votes, according to the US Elections Project.
Voter turnout remained relatively high in the 1904 and 1908 elections, around 65 percent. Then the numbers dropped for several years, until the 1960 Nixon-Kennedy election mentioned above.
In subsequent years, turnout has ranged from 48 to 60 percent of eligible voters. But experts point to two main reasons for the massive increase anticipated for 2020: the COVID-19 pandemic and the increased enthusiasm among Americans for this year’s election.
The pandemic has changed lives in many ways, including the way people are voting. At least nine states mailed a ballot to all registered voters before Election Day as a way to encourage more people to use the option, as many health officials see it as a safer way to vote.
Early voting has become an increasingly popular option over the years, with the previous record being reached in 2016 with 47 million votes cast before Election Day, or 23.7 percent of the number. total votes cast, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.
But for the first time in modern history, more Americans are expected to vote before Election Day this year, according to aaccording to SA Today. The Center for Bipartisan Politics estimated that between 50 and 70 percent of all votes cast this year will be absentee votes.
Civic engagement before the November 3 elections has also increased. According to a Gallup poll released on October 30, 69 percent of registered voters said they are more excited about voting in the 2020 election compared to previous years. A 2016 Gallup poll asked voters the same question, finding that only half were more enthusiastic than in previous years.
Ethan Miller / Getty
Nationally, voters have already cast 73.3 percent of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election, according to the U.S. Elections Project. And at least 13 states have already surpassed 90 percent of the total turnout in 2016 with the first votes alone.
Hawaii ranks first, with 110.6 percent of its 2016 voter turnout before the November 3 election. This was not necessarily difficult to achieve: Hawaii had the worst voter turnout in 2016, with only 43.2 percent of its eligible population casting their vote. Texas and Washington ranked second and third, with 108.3 percent and 105.4 percent of their share in 2016 already reached before November 3.
