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In March, Boris Johnson said we would change course in 12 weeks and “ship the coronavirus package” and in May ministers bragged about having a vaccine by September. Last week, the prime minister was much less confident, telling MPs that there was still no vaccine for SARS, 18 years after its appearance. However, a vaccine may not be far off.
Studies
The World Health Organization is tracking 196 vaccine studies. Of these, 42 are in human clinical trials and eight are in phase three – large-scale trials to test their efficacy. AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford have developed a vaccine based on a virus extracted from chimpanzees, but the trial stopped for a week after a volunteer fell ill; continues in the UK but not the US Another, Novavax, is launching a larger phase three trial after a study of 10,000 volunteers in the UK.
China and Russia have already approved some limited-use vaccines. The Wuhan Institute for Biologicals has a vaccine that is being used in healthcare workers in the United Arab Emirates and says the Chinese government has approved its use in more than 100,000 people. CanSino Biologics is testing its vaccine on Chinese soldiers. Vladimir Putin has been using the pandemic for propaganda: He claimed that the Russian Gamaleya Research Institute’s vaccine was approved in August (it was not), called it “Sputnik V” and the Foreign Ministry believes it has authorized a disinformation campaign addressed to AstraZeneca Trials.
Vaccine Task Force chair Kate Bingham says there is a “slim chance” that a vaccine will arrive by Christmas. But he hopes it will be here “early next year.” The Medicines and Health Products Regulatory Authority must approve any vaccine first, and then it must be manufactured and distributed. Pharmaceutical companies have already manufactured millions of doses of some of the test drugs, but distribution can be more complicated. Many vaccines must be kept refrigerated before use, which is why seven “Nightingale vaccination centers” have been found, including Leeds City Hall and the Woking Leisure Center, according to The Economist.
Will I be vaccinated?
It depends: are you older, classified as clinically extremely vulnerable, or work for the NHS? If so, you are probably at the head of the queue. But younger and better fit people who are not essential workers will likely have to wait much longer.
Luminaries like Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, have pointed out that it would be immoral for richer countries like the UK and the US to stockpile vaccines while others fight for scraps. Farrar believes that only 20% to 30% of the UK will need a vaccine initially.
Silver bullet?
We cannot be sure that vaccines spell the end of the blockades. Scientists advise politicians to lock down to prevent the virus from spreading so fast that hospitals run out of beds to treat the sick, whether they have Covid-19 or another life-threatening illness. The first few vaccines may only be partially effective and may not protect everyone. Flu vaccines are 50% effective, Bingham said last week. We may need masks and social distancing until at least July 2021.
