UP experts note COVID-19 downtrend, but say Metro Manila should stay on GCQ

MANILA: A UP research group noted on Saturday a downward trend in the number of cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the country, but said the Metro Manila epicenter should remain under general community quarantine (GCQ ), warning that premature dimming would lead to an “exponential” increase at Christmas.

In a report, the UP OCTA research group noted a decrease in the number of cases in the country, including the capital region, even as they warned that this trend “is not irreversible” and much needs to be done to maintain it before relax even more. measures for quarantine.

The GCQ status in Metro Manila expires at the end of the month and the government is expected to announce its decision on the level of quarantine before then.

While the numbers say the situation at NCR has “improved,” the UP group also noted that Metro Manila has yet to achieve the 28-day case doubling time set by the country’s pandemic task force as a requirement. prior to an additional change in the more relaxed modified GCQ. state.

“The national government should maintain GCQ status at NCR along with further enhancements to its testing, tracing and isolation programs not only to maintain the earnings of the last MECQ but also to avoid a sudden spike in the coming months,” the statement read. the report’s recommendations. .

Last August, Metro Manila was placed under Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ), the second strictest of the area-based lockdown classifications the government is implementing for its COVID-19 response, at the request of exhausted healthcare workers. for a waiting time as they warned. that the health system was on the brink of collapse.

Cases spiked after quarantine measures were relaxed to revive the paralyzed economy in July.

Hospital occupancy in the metropolis, while still “significant”, is now below 70% of the critical level, according to the research team.

Data as of September 21 showed that around 57 percent of the COVID-19 beds in Metro Manila were occupied. The occupancy of COVID-19 beds dedicated to critical care was 65 percent.

For this month, cases in Metro Manila have decreased to around 1,200 new cases per day, a “decrease of more than 50 percent compared to 5 weeks ago.”

The COVID-19 reproduction rate, a measure of transmission potential, stood at 0.74 in Metro Manila from September 16 to 23, according to UP OCTA data, lower than the 0.86 reproduction rate posted this week. previous.

The positivity rate, or the number of people who tested positive for COVID-19 total, has been 10 percent for the past two weeks in the capital region.

Amid such positive signs, the research team warned against premature degradation of quarantine status in the metropolis, saying that cases by Christmas time could increase if restrictions are eased in Metro Manila.

“Based on past data and trends, a premature decline from quarantine status at the NCR may increase the risk of a sudden spike in December, around Christmas time,” the researchers said.

Officials previously said they were considering placing Metro Manila under a modified GCQ, the lowest of the four quarantine classifications.

HIGH RISK AREAS, HOTSPOTS

For nationwide case data, UP OCTA also noted a decrease in the number of cases for the entire country, with the government registering fewer than 3,000 cases daily in recent days.

Bulacan, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Negros Occidental and Rizal remain “high risk” areas, but the number of new cases in these provinces has decreased compared to the previous week.

Meanwhile, emerging COVID-19 “hot spots” include Baguio City, Iloilo City, Tacloban, Cagayan de Oro, and Nueva Vizcaya, while there is a downward trend in previously reported hot spots such as Agusan del Norte, Capiz, Davao Norte, Lanao Del Norte, Lanao Del Sur, Oriental Mindoro and South Cotabato.

The research group recommended implementing “more effective localized closures” alongside stricter border controls to stop transmissions, and reiterated the need to implement the “test, trace and treat” strategy or the T3 strategy, as the government is ready to re-decide on quarantine classifications. for October.

“Getting the isolation and T3 strategy scaled up and implemented effectively is key to controlling the spread of the virus,” he said.

The research group has modified its projections for total cases in the coming weeks due to the downtrend. From expecting 330,000 to 375,000 cases by the end of September in its August 31 report, the group kept projections lowered to September 7 from 310,000 to 330,000 cases by September 30.

It also projected 380,000 to 410,000 cases by October 31.

“We are likely to reach the lower range of previous projections, a very positive sign that we are going in the right direction,” he said.

This Saturday, the number of coronavirus cases exceeded 300,000 across the country.