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With the election just a few weeks away, voters and election officials have seen Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump shrink in recent days. Now, the most recent state polls show Trump within the margin of error to win in seven of the top changing states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Texas and Iowa.
While national polls show Biden ahead of Trump by 7 percentage points, as of Wednesday, most polls in major swing states show no clear or definitive winner. In Georgia, a state that has not voted for Democrats since the 1990s but is now considered a lottery, Biden is projected to win 47 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 46 percent, well within the 3.6 percent margin of error, according to an AARP poll released Sept. 10.
Arizona, New Hampshire and North Carolina show Biden in the lead by just 3 percentage points in recent polls, while on September 12 New York Times/ The Siena College poll shows Biden with a 4 percentage point advantage in Nevada, which is within the 5.3 percent margin of error.
In a poll by the University of Texas at Tyler earlier this month, Trump led Biden by just 2 percentage points (48 percent to 46 percent) among potential voters in Texas, a state that has not voted Democrats. since 1976. Similarly, Trump is 47 to 45 percent ahead of Biden in Iowa. Both polls have a margin of error of just over 3 percent.
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Mandel ngan
Near the 2016 presidential election, Trump was ahead of Hillary Clinton by a similar number of percentage points within the margin of error in indecisive state polls. In Michigan, Trump was the favorite to win at 49 percent to 47 percent, but ended up getting just 0.3 percent of the vote. Although November polls for North Carolina showed 44 percent for both presidential nominees, Trump won the state by nearly 50 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent.
Other states in which Trump voted within the margin of error in 2016 were Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Clinton won all but Pennsylvania, which Trump ultimately took with less than 1 percentage point. She needed 270 Electoral College votes to win and got 306.
In the 2016 race, poll data shows that Biden has a significantly higher advantage over Trump, compared to Clinton’s numbers four years ago, with fewer undecided voters this time. In all possible scenarios, Trump will need to win some of the battlefield states now leaning towards Biden to reach a winning number of electoral votes.
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Currently, the states that can vote Democratic or Republican in November are Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina. (According to recent polls, all of these states are in favor of Biden. Even if Trump won all of these states, but not any Democratic-leaning battleground state like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden would win the election by just 20 electoral votes.
