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NEW YORK, United States – At the moment, all the polls seem to be going the way of Joe Biden before the presidential election on November 3. But players see a different reality and are betting on Donald Trump.
The Republican incumbent, who is seeking a second term, has slowly regressed since the end of July to almost level with the former Democratic vice president.
For some Australian and British bookmakers, Trump is the favorite of the odds.
Gambling in national or local elections is illegal in the United States. All the action happens on foreign gambling sites, which Americans can sometimes access.
A $ 100 bet on a Trump win today could bring the bettor a $ 190 return if he wins.
“There is no question that momentum appears to have returned in favor of President Trump,” said Rupert Adams, a spokesman for British bookmaker William Hill, which has already accepted more than $ 1.3 million in election bets.
Lee Price, a spokesman for Irish gambling brand Paddy Power, explains that after a slowdown in gambling activity due to the coronavirus crisis, interest “has started to pick up again in recent weeks.”
“We think the Trump factor will surely keep bettors interested,” Price told AFP.
Many who have bet on Trump are now expecting a repeat of 2016, when the Manhattan real estate mogul staged a surprising comeback against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton to win the White House.
‘Simply terrifying’
British sportsbook Betfair has received £ 10 million ($ 13.3 million) in bets on the White House race since Aug. 23, on the eve of the Republican nominating convention.
That brings his total so far to 72 million pounds, compared to 33 million pounds at the same point in the campaign in 2016.
Betfair expects to break the record 199 million pounds wagered in 2016, half of which came after polling stations closed, spokesman Darren Hughes explained.
Beyond the main event, Paddy Power goes for some wacky themes: Will Trump paint the White House gold (500-1)? Will you have an airport in Mexico with your name (66-1)?
But Price says interest in those kinds of bets has waned a bit.
“Trump is less wacky and quirky and funny,” Price says, calling the president’s current behavior “just terrifying.”
Matthew Collins, a 29-year-old Australian sales consultant, made 21 separate bets before the Republican convention, nearly all of them on Trump.
He chose the president to win again in November, but also as the winner of several specific states. In total, he deposited around A $ 20,000 (US $ 14,570), a sum he won with a bet that Biden would choose Kamala Harris as his running mate.
Collins, who describes himself as politically left-wing, says he believes Trump has gained momentum since his party’s convention in late August, which came in the immediate aftermath of the Democrats’ event.
Republicans seem to like the United States. They don’t hate their own country. I didn’t get that from the DNC, so I think their message on his face is not convincing, “Collins said.
‘Look where the money goes’
Nick Freiling, chief executive of a market research firm, who bet $ 300 on a Trump win in traditionally Democratic Minnesota, says the gap between candidates is normal to narrow as November approaches.
The coronavirus crisis is another major factor, he said: Trump faced harsh criticism for his handling of the pandemic, but the problem “is constantly fading from our public consciousness and people are less angry about things, in general.”
Collins said he did not believe the polls were “representative of reality” and said the margin of error “must be so high.”
For Freiling, “polls can be of ‘likely voters’ and show that Biden wins. But what about voter enthusiasm for your candidate (which is correlated with turnout)? Trump is winning that battle by big margins. “
“Watch where the money goes,” Collins said, predicting Trump will dominate all three of his debates with Biden. “That’s what really matters to people.”
He noted that voters can lie to pollsters about who they support, which could skew the results.
Those with skin in the gambling game are also on the lookout for the likely massive proportion of votes cast by mail this year, due to concerns about the coronavirus, a potential game changer.
“It feels like a situation that could get very complicated,” Collins said.
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