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Miami is one of the favorites in the playoffs – the Heat have a lot of fans in and out of league circles.
Milwaukee has its share of skeptics, people who think the Bucks are overrated and a one-trick pony.
Does that mean a surprise is brewing in the East? The “unpredictable bubble playoffs” have largely followed suit thus far, but the No. 5 seed Heat presents confrontational problems for the seeded Bucks, making this possibly the first major upset of the playoffs. That’s why this second-round series, which begins Monday night, has attracted a lot of interest.
For the Miami Heat to beat the Milwaukee Bucks, these three things have to come together for them.
1) Bam Adebayo and company must stop Giannis Antetokounmpo
No one is stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo right now – he’s the best player in the world. The reigning MVP is about to win that award consecutively (and was just named Defensive Player of the Year).
Antetokounmpo is going to get his thing, the important thing is to stop him, get him in the midfield and have someone who can make the Greek Freak less efficient.
Enter Bam Adebayo.
Adebayo has the length, athleticism, and strength to annoy Antetokounmpo as much as any human. According to advanced statistics from NBA.com, Antetokounmpo was 12 of 28 this season when protected by Adebayo. Which is great, but this can’t be a one-man show (and the Heat can’t afford Adebayo to have foul problems). Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Derrick Jones Jr. will likely have time to tag Antetokounmpo. More importantly, there has to be a smart and decisive helping defense on the Greek Freak to put him in tough situations.
There is a plan to slow Antetokounmpo and Eric Spoelstra will stick with it: back off and remove his transition cubes, duplicate it within the three-point line (and encourage him to take as many three as he wants) and pack up the paint. Those play with Miami’s defensive strengths. Antetokounmpo will offer Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton and the other Bucks, and he’s fine. Make those guys beat you. As always with Milwaukee, it all depends on the other players on the team stepping up.
2) Miami shooters have to hit three over the break
The Bucks had the best defense in the NBA this season, but their Achilles heel is no secret: No team gives up more three-point attempts than Milwaukee – 39.3 per game in the regular season. Your defense of protecting the painting at all costs has to deliver something, and that’s it.
However, not all three are created equal and Milwaukee is smart about the three they surrender to. They slam shut and chase the boys from the shortest three corners. Plus, the Bucks are the best team to meet your staff – they don’t give snipers room in the arc, just minor threats. In the first round against Miami, Markelle Fultz was at the all-you-can-eat buffet on goal, but did you notice how the Bucks pulled Evan Fournier off the line when he got the ball? They knew.
What happens when the Bucks run into a team full of shooters? This is Miami. They’re loaded with players who can take down all three, hitting 37.9% from deep as a team this season (second best in the league). More importantly, the Heat shot 38.2% on 3s over the break and have some shooters who are particularly deadly up front.
Seek out Duncan Robinson and Goran Dragic for plenty of clean looks up high. If those two, and other Heat shooters like Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn and Kelly Olynyk, hit 3s, the Heat can score points against Buck’s best defense in the league.
As a side note, Miami, and Butler in particular, have to finish inside to balance things out. Butler isn’t a great three-point shooter, but he has to hit the rim and his mid-range shots to get his own and help the offense click.
3) Mike Budenholzer’s adjustments have to fall short again
Eric Spoelstra will have a plan when Game 1 starts. And when parts of that plan don’t work, he will adjust. Quick. When one player proves to be a poor matchup in this series, Spoelstra will make a merciless change.
Will Mike Budenholzer make the necessary adjustments? And when it does, will they work?
That’s the book on Budenholzer, fair or not: the man sticks to his plan to the end. And when your plan is to “get the ball to Antetokounmpo and get out of the way,” that plan will work almost every night. He was slow to adapt against Toronto, slow to increase Antetokounmpo’s minutes.
Budenholzer says he has learned from his mistakes. And to be fair, he has done things this season like role lineups with Antetokounmpo in all five for long stretches. Or post Brook Lopez because that was the best matchup. The problem for Budenholzer has been, and it was against Toronto in the last playoffs, their players didn’t always execute their adjustments.
They need this season. They need this series.
Spoelstra and the Heat have almost no room for error in this series, they need to slow down Antetokounmpo and run their offense (hit their 3s) at a high level to have a chance. You know Spoelstra will put his boys in the right positions.
Will Budenholzer have the counters?
