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Dr. Benjamin Co, an expert in infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology, has been fortunately breaking down the coronavirus numbers on your personal blog since the outbreak started. The insight it provides is informative and comforting for those who want a clear picture of how we deal with the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the numbers reported by the Department of Health with ANCX.
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See link DOH.gov.ph or updated data or COVID19.gov.ph. (The latter is not a secure site). The new site for the Department of Health is easy to use, provides more information where you see a COVID19 tracker. Readers can refer to their official site where Data Drop can be found for raw data.
A useful site is COVID19stats, where you can see most DoH data in graphical format.
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We return to the data roller coaster. This can be attributed to the increased number of people testing lately. As mentioned, the more tests are performed, the greater the number of cases we expect. We’ve had an average of 6,700 tests daily over the past week with over 8,000 tests performed overnight alone! Hopefully, the “bulk test” now translates into better patient care and community follow-up. There are no reports (not surprising) of the tests performed for the day.
It is presumed that with more tests performed, there will be new higher confirmed cases. However, if the disease is recognized early with good contact monitoring, mortality rates will see a decrease over a period of time.
Comparison of the growth of the total of confirmed cases versus deaths.
The figure above shows the same proportional pattern in the growth rates of cases and deaths. It is taking a similar path. This is because we are not testing enough, which means we are not doing enough contact tracing in asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic patients.
Comparative data between the Philippines and South Korea on “bending the curve” in confirmed cases and deaths.
The figure above shows a comparison between the data for the Philippines and South Korea. The logarithmic graph of South Korea evidently shows a curvature of the growth curve in confirmed cases. A few days ago, it was observed that a man had to go to several nightclubs and had exposed 1,940 people. The Korean government tracked contacts and found a handful of positive patients who were exposed to the case. This explains the sudden increase in cases on the left side of the graph. However, on the right hand side, you will notice that the number of deaths has continued to decrease.
It cannot be overemphasized that the only way we will beat this pandemic is if we do more aggressive and intensive contact tracking, testing and isolation and quarantine of those who test positive for the virus in the community.
The DoH reported 264 new cases, 107 new recoveries and 25 new deaths. Compared to globally confirmed cases, the Philippines contributes 0.27 percent of cases and 0.26 percent of COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
Two things to keep in mind:
(1) These three parameters (new confirmed cases, new recoveries, new deaths) are not real-time data. The data provided by the Department of Health is the date of the public announcement. Deaths and recoveries are on average, publicly announced 8 days after the event.
(2) Depending on where the tests are performed, the RT-PCR test results take an average of one to two days to process. Unless there are delays, all tests performed should ideally be released for at least 48 hours (the sooner the better). However, the results of tests published at government facilities vary from three to 14 days, probably due to the large number of tests that are performed compared to private hospitals where fewer tests are performed.
New cases announced, recoveries and deaths are the count of reported cases for the day.
Comparison of new daily cases, deaths and daily recoveries. There are now 2,857 cases closed.
Case fatality increased by 6.62 percent (vs. 6.73 percent of the world average vs. 2.44 percent of the ASEAN average) and the recovery rate increased by 18.6 percent (vs. 35.93 percent of the world average vs. 20 percent of the ASEAN) for the day.
The Philippines case fatality rate will soon reach the world average case fatality rate. (Note that a few weeks ago, the world’s CFR was at 7.75 percent. With more global testing and tracking, there are now fewer deaths and more reported asymptomatic cases. Even within the ASEAN region, the average death rate it is lower compared to ours and the average recovery rate is higher than in the Philippines). Which means only one of two things: We are not doing enough testing and tracking and / or our health system is really bad. No matter how the authorities try to provide excuses for the data, it keeps going back to the quality of the data out there.
The doubling time allows us to know the number of days it takes to double confirmed cases (or death rates) and can be determined linearly or exponentially. A logarithmic scale is the ideal graph to use. The following figure shows that the doubling time in mortality rates is around 8.3 days. Case growth rate is now 2.29 percent (based on the seven-day average).
DOH Reporting
More than half (399) are posthumous results. This is the number of people who died before being declared positive for SARS-CoV-2.
On average, it takes almost nine days before a recovery is publicly announced (almost 50 percent are reported after eight days).
On average, it takes more than eight days to publicly announce a death, and 43 percent report it after eight days.
The need for a more timely reporting of all data entered cannot be overstated. This includes all tests, deaths, and recoveries. Latent reports are useless because they do not reflect the true state of the pandemic in the country and whether policies like ECQ or MCQ or GCQ really work or not. What is happening is that we are simply “guessing” that with the blockade mitigation strategy, we have decreased the number of cases in the country.
This theory is partially flawed because when the ECQ was stated, the measures on how to deal with it must have been planned and implemented immediately. In short, the government should have already planned B. While it is working to run more tests and arguably the government had announced this morning that they were not doing enough contact tracking, it would now make efforts on this, we are actually behind schedule. 60 days plan. It makes you wonder when a real date would be when all data would be in real time. Because as long as latent data is the basis for policy making, these poor data quality based policies will always be flawed.
New cases per day
Of the 264 new cases announced today, all had been tagged with their residency information. One hundred sixty-five (63 percent) were from the NCR, 74 (28 percent) from Region VII, and 25 (9 percent) from other areas. Region-level data is accurate, but cases by city are reported only for those that could be verified. There were still a handful of validations as of this report.
In the NCR, the breakdown is as follows: Quezon City (33), Manila (16), Taguig (15), Pasay (12), Marikina (8) Malabon and Makati (5 each), Navotas, Parañaque and Pateros ( 4 each), Las Piñas and Pasig (2 each) and 1 each for Mandaluyong, Caloocan and Valenzuela. There are 55 validation cases in the NCR.
Region VII reported 72 cases in Cebu city and 1 in Cebu province. One is for validation.
Other reporting areas include: Oriental Mindoro (5), Occidental Mindoro (1), Romblon (1), Rizal (2), Laguna (3), Cavite (3), Bulacan (1), Iloilo (3), Antique ( 1), Ilocos (1), Albay (1), Camarines Sur (1), Camarines Norte (1), Benguet (1) and two for validation in some areas.
New daily cases, deaths and recoveries.
The DoH website update shows the bar graph for daily cases, active cases, daily deaths, and daily recoveries. While there has been a decrease in the last 3 days in new daily cases, today there is a sudden increase in new cases. Total deaths have increased (again) as recoveries continue to increase.
To contact the Department of Health, the COVID hotline is (02) 894-COVID loc 1555.
Global statistics
Update starting at 9 p.m. from Monday, May 12, 2020 (Tuesday)
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES: 4,270,751
TOTAL DEATHS: 287,540 (fatality rate: 6.73 percent)
TOTAL RECOVERED: 1,534,371 (case recovery rate: 35.93 percent)
Total cases worldwide
Please note that each reference has its own cutoff time to report. For global data, WorldOMeters is used as a reference.
Total confirmed cases have passed the four million mark as previously predicted. The average trend in the past week has averaged 90,000 new confirmed cases daily with more tests conducted worldwide. At the current growth rate, at least one million new confirmed cases can be recorded every 12 days. This means that there is a high probability that the five million mark will be reached on or before May 20, 2020.
The total number of recoveries has passed the 1.5M mark with recoveries significantly greater than deaths.
The United States of America continues to lead the world in the total number of confirmed cases at 1,385,834 with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 5.9 percent with 81,795 total deaths recorded. The recovery rate for the USA USA It has increased by 18.91 percent. Among the states, New York leads nearly 347,151 total confirmed cases and 27,003 total deaths with a stable CFR at 7.78 percent. The tests were carried out in more than 9.6 million tests yesterday (29,063 / M population).
While the United States may have the highest number of cases and the number of deaths in the world, Belgium (16.29 percent), Yemen (15.69 percent), and France (14.9 percent) have the highest mortality rates. 9 countries with more than> 50 cases AND zero (0) deaths reported by COVID-19 are: Vietnam, Cambodia, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, Madagascar, Mozambique, Central African Republic and Nepal for more than two weeks.
Iceland now has the highest case recovery rate with 98.45 percent recovered (1,773 recoveries, 10 deaths in 1801 confirmed cases in total). Cambodia’s recovery rate remains at 98.36 percent (120 of 122 cases) no deaths reported since his first COVID-19 case. Cambodia has not had a new case since April 13, 2020.
The median average case fatality rate worldwide is lowest at 6.73 percent. Based on current data for the past 2-3 months, about 80-90 percent of patients are asymptomatic or recover remarkably. Depending on the country’s health system and the risk age group (major or minor populations), the mortality rate is between 5 and 15 percent on average. Recoveries far outweigh deaths with a ratio of approximately 5.4: 1.
