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It follows rising tensions over China’s alleged cover-up of the Covid-19 virus, and reports that it intends to mark areas of the South China Sea as an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
Last week, a leaked report submitted by China’s Ministry of State Security to President Xi Jinping revealed that global sentiment against China is at its highest point since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.
Leading sources in China say Xi is preparing for the worst-case scenario of armed confrontation with the United States.
But the course of China’s collision with the war began long before the outbreak of the coronavirus, with the rise of the nationalist Xi and the intensification of so-called “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, named for a film in which the Chinese special forces They beat American mercenaries in Africa and Asia.
Taiwan Conflict Dean Cheng, principal investigator for Chinese Military and Political Affairs in the US Heritage Foundation think tank, said: “The Chinese themselves describe some of their diplomats as Wolf Warriors. These include Lijian Zhao, who suggested that the United States started Covid- 19)
“This is not China lagging behind the Covid crisis. The crisis had simply pushed open a door that Xi opened when he came to power.”
The obvious flash points are Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Cheng said: “The conflict over Taiwan is the most immediate possibility, and this has been exacerbated by the Covid crisis.
“So far, most countries have been meeting China’s demands. But it is possible that mounting evidence of China’s not-good-citizen status will further encourage Taiwan to be recognized as its own country in the next five years.” .
“This would lead to a military escalation by China and a reaction from the United States, Japan and, at least diplomatically, the United Kingdom and other allies.”
The South China Sea is still another barrel of gunpowder.
“If the reports of plans to impose an ADIZ are correct, it would exasperate global tensions because each year $ 5.5 trillion transits trade through the South China Sea,” Cheng said.
When the Chinese bluff was called after a similar move in the East China Sea, it did not respond militarily. But the rules are changing. Mr. Cheng said: “China borders 17 countries, and we have a set of players with different views on acceptable risk behavior.
“India and China are two legs of a three-legged stool and the problem is that the third leg is Pakistan. Their support for terrorist groups, their ever closer ties with China and the growing dialogue between the United States and India are all factors.
“China has sent soldiers to India before. It is only because of Indian good luck and tolerance that no one has shot anyone yet. If this happens, the United States could be embroiled in military conflict.”
“Another real scenario would have happened if Kim Jong-un had died and China interfered with North Korea.”
Although the President of the United States, Donald Trump, is famous for being a negotiator, it is not the case that he avoids the conflict at all costs, Cheng said.
“His propensity is for the financial conflict to get what he wants. But he has carried out more foreign operations in his first two years than [Barack] Obama did it in four years.
“If China were to invade Taiwan, for example, even he would recognize that this is not really feasible.”
China also prefers economic and political pressure to military force.
“While Xi is unlikely to use military force as the first choice now, except in Taiwan, will it be true in five years?” Mr. Cheng asks.
“If China creates an ADIZ in the South China Sea and cannot apply it, Xi loses face internally, and that is significant. The question is not ‘Trump is a negotiator’, but Xi Jinping?
“Until now, everyone played by the rules. But the post-Covid-19 world will see China questioning the value of a rulebook imposed by previous generations, when it stops working for them.”
