[ad_1]
Dr. Benjamin Co, an expert in infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology, has been fortunately breaking the coronavirus numbers on your personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective it offers is informative and comforting for those who want a clear picture of how we deal with the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the numbers reported by the Department of Health with ANCX.
–
See link DOH.gov.ph or updated data or COVID19.gov.ph. (The latter is not a secure site). The new site for the Department of Health is easy to use, provides more information where you see a COVID19 tracker. Readers can refer to their official site where Data Drop can be found for raw data.
You may also like:
Comparison of new daily cases, deaths and daily recoveries. There are now 1,663 cases closed.
There are three parameters in the figure above. New daily cases that increased by 276 new cases, new daily deaths decreased by 10 and only 20 new recoveries. This raises the case fatality rate to 6.6 percent (vs. 7.06 percent of the world average) and the stable recovery rate to 12.35 percent (vs. 31.6 percent of the world average) for the day.
The doubling time allows us to know the number of days it takes to double confirmed cases (or mortality rates) and can be determined linearly or exponentially. The linear scale is used in this report which shows that the mean doubling time is 24 days based on the seven day average daily growth rate of 2.88 percent. (This is approximately 7 days on a logarithmic scale). The lower the growth rate, the longer the doubling time.
Logarithmic scale of the death rate in the Philippines. The Y axis is the exponential growth since the first fifth death (March 14, 2020) and the X axis shows the number of days since the first fifth case. The doubling time using the logarithmic scale is ~ 7.2 days.
The number of probable cases (2,972), suspicious cases (14,556) and the number of health workers affected by COVID-19 are provided as additional information in real time. Of the 1,694 health workers affected, they account for 20 percent of confirmed cases.
The latency in the Health Department reports remains almost seven days before a death and more than eight days before a recovery is publicly announced.
The posthumous results are 321.
Are we testing enough?
The figure below shows that a total of 108,680 tests (with an average of more than 4500 tests per day) have been performed with 97,505 people evaluated. Of the evaluated individuals, 10,700 tested positive (11 percent) and 86,649 (89 percent) tested negative. However, there are only 8,772 confirmed cases. This is explained by the fact that some patients undergo further tests but remain positive.
Fewer tests were done yesterday compared to the previous day, and the fluctuations in tests are troubling because we may actually need to screen more patients to see the true picture of the pandemic in the country. However, even with more tests available, if the result will create delays, it defeats the purpose of further testing if the results are not published in real time.
SARS-CoV-2 testing in the Philippines
The figures above show the tests carried out and the number of people evaluated. For now, at least 11 percent of the patients tested were positive, while the remaining 89 percent were negative. The increase in new confirmed cases may be due to more tests in recent days. The usual response time for RT-PCR is two to four days.
New cases per day
The flattening of the curve is based on continuous daily data. There needs to be a trend in reporting new cases daily so we know where we are. If there is a long latency time to report new cases, new recoveries, and new deaths, the quality of the data becomes an unreliable source for determining how effective an intervention (in this case, the ECQ) is in reducing cases. in the community. The following figure shows the general trend of new cases in the Philippines.
When the test intensifies, we hope to see some of the cases increase. To see if we have managed to control the outbreak in the Philippines, we will need to see a decrease in mortality rates.
Are we flattening the curve?
New region-based cases
Of the 284 new cases announced by the Department of Health, all had tagged residency information. 151 cases from Luzon (130 from NCR), 130 cases from Central Visayas, 12 cases from Calabarzon, three cases each from the Bicol region and the Cagayan Valley, two cases from Western Visayas and one case from Central Luzon, Administrative region of the Cordillera and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
New cases by city with more than three cases
Cebu City had the highest number of cases of any individual city overnight with 126 cases. The National Capital Region had the highest number of cases by region in 130. The cases of NCR and Cebu City only contributed to more than 90 percent of the total confirmed cases reported in the last 24 hours.
In cases by city, Cebu City ranks third in the Philippines, and number four in terms of cities with the highest number of COVID-19 cases per million residents. The city of Davao has the highest mortality rate among urban cities, with a CFR of 16 percent (18 deaths in 113 cases).
Demographics and general location reports will now be provided every SUNDAY for the entire week summary to be provided.
The Health Department hotline is (02) 8-6517800 loc 1149-1150. People with fever and / or respiratory symptoms are encouraged to contact the DoH.
Global statistics
Update from 8 p.m. M. May 1, 2020 (Friday)
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES: 3,319,856
TOTAL DEATHS: 234,279 (case fatality rate: 7.06 percent)
TOTAL RECOVERED: 1,048,807 (case recovery rate: 31.6 percent)
Total cases worldwide
Please note that each reference has its own cutoff time to report. For global data, WorldOMeters is used as a reference.
Total cases have crossed the 3 million mark. The average trend in the past week has averaged ~ 100,000 confirmed cases daily with more tests conducted worldwide. The total number of recoveries exceeded one million.
The United States of America leads the world in the total number of confirmed cases, as they cross the million mark at 1,095,023 with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 5.83 percent with 63,856 total deaths recorded. The United States had more than 30,000 new cases overnight with about 6.4 million tests performed (19,311 tests / M population). The recovery rate for the USA USA It is slightly higher at 14.22 percent. Among the states, New York leads almost 310,839 total confirmed cases and 23,780 total deaths with a stable CFR rate of 7.65 percent.
While the United States may have the highest number of cases and the number of deaths in the world, Belgium (15.71 percent) and the United Kingdom (15.56 percent) have the highest death rate. 8 countries with more than> 50 cases AND zero (0) deaths reported by COVID-19 are: Vietnam, Cambodia, Uganda, Rwanda, Madagascar, Mozambique, Central African Republic and Nepal.
Cambodia has the highest recovery rate at 97.54 percent (119 out of 122 cases) and no deaths were reported since its first case of COVID-19. Note that Cambodia has not had a new case since April 13, 2020. The following countries have the lowest recovery rates: The Netherlands (0.32 percent), Norway (0.41 percent), and the United Kingdom (0.50 percent).
The average global case fatality rate is now 7.11 percent, but it is projected to be at 7 percent. With more recoveries throughout the pandemic cycle, death rates should probably be reduced to represent the true death rate after the pandemic.
