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Air traffic passenger volume in key Asia Pacific markets “will remain well below” next year compared to pre-coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic levels, Fitch Ratings said.
In a statement issued on Monday, the credit rating agency said that recovery, especially the international network, would depend on the ability of countries to mitigate the hit of the Covid-19 crisis.
Fitch Ratings noted that international traffic would “remain weaker” than domestic operations.
“Our forecasts are based on the assumption that a vaccine or treatment will not be available on a large scale in 2021, but that progress is being made in controlling the pandemic,” he said.
“Airline passenger volume could improve faster than we forecast if an effective vaccine is delivered sooner than we think or if there is more success in containing the pandemic,” Fitch Ratings added.
The Philippines and Indonesia may record revenue per passenger kilometers (RPK), a measure of traffic, levels of 35 percent of baselines in 2020 and 60 percent in 2021, lower than neighboring countries as the two countries continue to suffer a high number of coronavirus cases.
Despite having successfully weathered the health crisis, Thai and Malaysian airlines may continue to suffer from weak international travel.
On the other hand, Vietnam airlines are expected to “recover faster” due to their low incidence of Covid-19 cases.
For China, Fitch Ratings said its average RPK for 2021 can “bounce back to at least the 2019 level” if it evades another wave of the virus. Average RPKs for Indian airlines may decline 65 percent this year and remain 40 percent below the 2019 level next year.
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