2020 US Open Men’s Advancement: Novak Djokovic’s Title to Lose; potential first-time winners abound in the draw

Here we are, one day from the US Open. At one point, it seemed like there would be no tennis in 2020, much less a Grand Slam. However, the organizers of the US Open have now succeeded with only one player, Benoit Paire, who tested positive for COVID-19. A week of tennis at the Western & Southern Open, moved from Cincinnati to New York, went by without a hitch.

“There was definitely a point where, at first, I thought: There is no way these tournaments can happen,” Serena Williams said of playing in the middle of a pandemic.

Professional tennis resumed in Palermo for women and New York for men. But the challenge of a Grand Slam, handling so many events, so many players and inevitable logistical setbacks, is much greater.

Novak Djokovic won the Western & Southern Open by perfect preparation for the US Open. AFP

“There are going to be a lot of people around the world who think that we shouldn’t play tennis, that there shouldn’t be any public gatherings. I fully understand it. I really do, ”said world number one Novak Djokovic, who caught COVID-19 in June during an exhibition tour he organized that circumvented safety and social distancing measures.

“But, you know,” he continued, “I think there will also be a lot of people who will be glad that tennis continues.”

In a normal world, Djokovic is considered a huge favorite in most tournaments. But this is not a normal tournament and these are not normal times. The 2020 US Open will be played without Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, two of the big three, who bring 39 collective Grand Slams to the table. The last time a Grand Slam main draw started without either of them, it was 1999!

(On that note, have you held our open US contest?)

Djokovic, in 17 Slams, has the opportunity to get a little closer to Federer and Nadal and made his intention clear by winning the Western & Southern Open for his 35th Masters 1000 title. On top of that, the Serbian is now 23-0 in 2020 after having won the ATP Cup, Australian Open and Dubai Tennis Championships.

Wait for the 😘#CInCyTENNIS | @DjokerNole pic.twitter.com/8qdwD45C44

– Western and Southern Open (@CincyTennis) August 29, 2020

Federer and Nadal aren’t the only two key players missing from the men’s draw. The tournament will not feature crowd favorite Gael Monfils, Fabio Fognini, former champion Stan Wawrinka, former finalist Kei Nishikori, Nick Kyrgios, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Lucas Pouille.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the men who have taken a trip to New York. First: Djokovic.

Djokovic is the firm favorite; if there is any other winner, it would be a surprising result. He has won five of the last seven Grand Slam tournaments and reached at least the semi-finals in 11 consecutive US Open appearances. That streak was snapped last year when a shoulder injury caused him to retire in the fourth round.

This time, Djokovic has to deal with a neck injury. He withdrew from the doubles event citing neck pain, but he didn’t have enough trouble to derail it in the singles department. He needed the coach twice in the first round and then again in the semifinal for stomach problems as well. “I just didn’t feel good on the court, in any respect, my game and my body, but somehow I managed to get ahead,” he said later.

Djokovic won the first set against Berankis 7-6 after suffering a break, but the neck is obviously bothering him, he cannot serve properly. He was injured yesterday in practice. Receive treatment between series. #CincyOpen pic.twitter.com/MEpK4ZZRbE

– Sasa Ozmo (@ozmo_sasa) Aug 25, 2020

At the front of the draw, the three-time US Open champion faces Damir Dzumhur in the first quarter. He sees a potentially easy first week with Jan-Lennard Struff, the first seeded player he could deal with. Novak could face Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinals and Dominic Thiem in the final, provided the top seeds win.

And then there is the rest. Let’s start with a statistic: the last player other than Djokovic, Nadal or Federer to win a Grand Slam was Wawrinka at the 2016 US Open. There are three Grand Slam winners in the men’s draw: Djokovic, Andy Murray and Marin Cilic; the last two are in the same drawing room. The unseeded Brit is hoping to make a decent comeback from his hip surgery.

Cilic, the 2014 US Open winner, starts against American Denis Kudla and could face Thiem in only the third round. The Croatian didn’t have the best starts as he lost to Denis Shapovalov last week and the draw doesn’t help the 31st seed.

The absence of fans means less pressure on players looking for their first Slam. The last player to win a first Major was Cilic and there are a couple of contenders who have been knocking on the door since then, this being a great opportunity.

Contestants for the first Slam

Dominic Thiem is the second seed at the US Open. AP

Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Raonic and Thiem are the main contenders to finally open their Grand Slam account. Tsitsipas advanced to the semifinals of the 2019 Australian Open, but his best level at the US Open is only the second round. He reached the semifinals of the Western & Southern Open this week (losing to Raonic) beating three big servers in Kevin Anderson, John Isner and Reilly Opelka in the first three rounds. The Greek starts against Albert Ramos-Viñolas, and could face Borna Coric in the third round.

Also in the same draw quarter is Zverev, whose Grand Slam record up to the semi-final foray in Melbourne this year left a lot to be desired. He reached the fourth round in New York last year, for his best result, and now has a daunting challenge in the first round. The German faces Anderson in the first round and has a possible fourth-round showdown against Diego Schwartzman, which is a different challenge.

Last year’s finalist Daniil Medvedev is another hopeful, but it will be interesting to see if he can do it without the crowd. The Russian went from villain to hero last year in what was an incredible show and a perfect example of fan power. Having made the quarters this week where he lost to Roberto Bautista Agut, his US Open will begin against Federico Delbonis. His side of the picture sees other seeds in Guido Pella (currently in quarantine), Nikoloz Basilashvili, Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud and last year’s semi-finalist Matteo Berrettini.

Thiem (and Zverev) were possibly the busiest players during the running of the bulls. While most of the players took refuge, the duo played several matches in Europe. The Austrian has been to three Slam finals and has come up short each time. One expected him to leave a mark when the tour resumed, but he lost in a one-sided match to Filip Krajinovic. Thiem should be happy to see the action go from the faster grandstand courts to the slower exhibition courts at the US Open. He will start against Jaume Munar and could face Cilic in the third round.

Make a reverence, @milosraonic! 👏

It’s wonderful to see him again at his best 🎾#CInCyTENNIS pic.twitter.com/XndAUdTHp0

– ATP Tour (@atptour) August 29, 2020

Following this week’s performance, Raonic has the biggest claim outside of Djokovic. The Canadian, sporting a different appearance and looking stronger than before (if that were possible!), Passed everyone ahead this week. Well, everyone except Djokovic. He took the first set from the Serbian before things started to go any other way. He starts against Leonardo Mayer and has a possible third-round clash against Bautista Agut.

First round crash to watch out for: Alexander Zverev vs. Kevin Anderson

Potential QF if the seeds are kept:

Djokovic vs. Isner
Shapovalov vs. Goffin
Tsitsipas vs Garin
Schwartzman vs. Zverev

Berrettini vs. Rublev
Dimitrov vs. Medvedev
Bautista Agut vs Khachanov
Aliassime vs Thiem