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Joe Biden, who wins the presidency, is fast approaching a foregone conclusion if his growing lead in the polls is to be believed. But if Biden has any government goals other than ridding the United States of Donald Trump, he will also need his party to win the Senate. Today that is a much more doubtful result, according to the main forecasting models.
RealClearPolitics sees a very slim margin for Democrats: 51-49 if the draws are decided in favor of the current leader in the polls, regardless of the margin. That’s a net change of four seats from the current 53-47 margin in favor of the Republican Party. And he would hand over control of the camera from Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell to New York’s Chuck Schumer.
Historically, votes in Senate races closely follow the winner of the presidential race in those states, about nine out of 10, according to Pew Research. So this is where the national margin comes into play most in the race. The higher the national margin, the greater the expected number of electoral votes, and therefore Biden’s state victories. If the former vice president translates his current voting advantage of roughly 11 points into actual votes, then he will likely prevail in Georgia (where there are two seats up for grabs, but probably only one on Election Day, as it is subject to a runoff). and possibly even Texas.
Furthermore, general support for Democrats threatens to change course, once seemingly solid red races for the Senate in South Carolina and Alaska. Also, a former Republican state senator from Kansas who has never been Trumper is doing surprisingly well as a Democrat in a free seat, where spending records are being set.
The financial disparity in favor of Democrats is unprecedented, more than double what the Republican Party has raised in the top 14 races nationwide. ActBlue, the Democratic fundraising website, raised $ 1.5 billion from July to September compared to $ 600 million from “WinRed,” the Republican Party website. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who is not used to even a close contest, no matter how much more is spent, has been forced to “beg” her fans for money on Fox News.
While money is certainly a measure of enthusiasm, the question remains whether it will translate into votes. The key is to turn the races that once tipped the Republican Party into sweepstakes, since in a wave election, the sweepstakes tend to break for the side that wins the presidency.
“It’s very clear from what we’re seeing in the polls and the fundraising figures that the momentum and enthusiasm is on the Democratic side,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye. “When a sitting (president) is unpopular, he takes people with him, and that’s the concern now.”
Republican senators who have not stood for election this cycle agree.
Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska struck Trump in a recorded conversation.
“(The debate) is going to be, ‘What the heck were any of us thinking, that selling a narcissistic individual obsessed with television to the American people was a good idea?’ We are looking at the barrel of a blue tsunami. “
Ted Cruz of Texas, who ran against Trump and suffered the president’s attacks on his wife and father, said: “I think we could lose the White House and both houses of Congress, which could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions. “.
