2 in 5 Filipino adults expect the economy to worsen in the next 12 months: SWS

MANILA – Two in five adult Filipinos, or about 40 percent, expect the economy to worsen in the next 12 months as the COVID-19 pandemic persists in the country, according to a recent survey by Social Weather Stations (SWS ).

The survey also showed that around 24 percent of Filipinos expect the economy to stay the same, while 30 percent expect it to improve.

The 40 percent of “economic pessimists” in July 2020 is the highest in more than 12 years, up from 52 percent in June 2008.

The net economic optimism score for July 2020 also dropped by 47 points, from “very high” +38 to “mediocre” -9.

This is also the lowest score since “low” -19 in February 2009.

Net economic optimism, according to SWS, refers to expectations about the Philippine economy in general. This is different from net personal optimism, which refers to one’s expectations of the quality of personal life.

The 47 point decrease in net economic optimism from December 2019 to July 2020 was due to decreases of 63 points in Visayas, 51 points in Mindanao, 42 points in Balance Luzon and 40 points in Metro Manila.

Net economic optimism is also lower among college graduates at “low” -12 and high school graduates at “low” -11, compared to elementary graduates (mediocre -5) and non-elementary graduates (mediocre +1 ).

Compared to the December 2019 results, net economic optimism declined at all educational levels.

The Philippine economy contracted a record 16.5 percent in the second quarter, plunging the country into a recession, following one of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world to slow the spread of COVID-19.

An independent survey also showed that adult unemployment reached a record 45.5 percent in July.

The figures were based on a non-commissioned survey of 1,555 Filipinos from July 3-6.

The survey, conducted via mobile phones and computer-assisted telephone interviews, asked respondents whether they expect the Philippine economy to improve, stay the same, or worsen in the next 12 months.

The survey had sampling error margins of ± 2 percent for national percentages, ± 6 percent for Metro Manila, and ± 5 percent for Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.