The U.S. death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic could reach nearly 300,000 on Dec. 1, according to a new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the School of Medicine at the University of Washington. The institute has been the source of influential, though not always accurate, models for the American pandemic, and has at times been favored by the White House.
The model shows 295,011 deaths by Dec. 1, but says that 70,000 of those could have been prevented if 95% of Americans wore masks when they were outside their homes. The model also assumes that some states will issue orders to stay home and close non-essential businesses when the daily death toll in a state reaches 8 per million.
“We’re seeing a rollercoaster in the United States,” said IHME Director Christopher Murray, MD, DPhil. “It seems that people wear masks and more often increase social distance than infections. Then, after a while, people drop like infections, let people save themselves and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others – which of course leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle begins again. “
Murray said IHME data show fewer new cases in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas, but expected deaths in the states to rise for the next 2 weeks. Based on rolling case counts and hospitalization and death data, IHME expects that Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Virginia will grow the next big case.
As of today, 32 states have passed mask mandates, including Washington DC and Puerto Rico.
According to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 tracker, the US has 4,904,474 COVID-19 cases today., and 160,437 dead.
Yesterday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its compiled forecast page, showing 175,000 to 190,000 total COVID-19 deaths are likely to be reported by August 29th.
“State-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week over the next four weeks may increase in Hawaii and Puerto Rico and may decrease in Florida, Mississippi, New Mexico, the Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and the Virgin Islands, ”said the CDC.
CDC Increases Travel Bonds for Americans
Yesterday, the CDC, along with the State Department, also lifted global recommendations recommending that U.S. citizens avoid all international travel due to the coronavirus pandemic, but an anti-Mexico travel advice remains in place. The State Department said the decision to continue the ban on travel to Mexico was made because of the pandemic, and an increased risk of kidnapping and crime.
The decision removes a blanket recommendation from preventing all international travel due to the pandemic, and reverts to the previous recommendation system that lists countries at threat levels.
According to Reuters, although the CDC dropped its global advisory recommendation against all non-essential international travel due to the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries remain at its highest level 3 advisory to avoid all non-essential travel.
In related news, Governor David Ige of Hawaii revived a travel bond between islands after Oahu saw an emergence of new cases, CNN said. According to Bruce Anderson, director of the Hawaii Department of Health, more than 53% of ICU beds in Oahu are occupied.
First Chamber members, White House, not close to pandemic relief package
First-Chamber Democrats, Republicans and the White House all remain broad on what they should include in a second relief package, with Democrats pushing for a $ 3 trillion bill, and Republicans holding business on a $ 1 trillion budget.
In a press conference today, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she offered to reduce the size of the approved house bill to about $ 2 trillion, but Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called that offer “a non-starter”, according to the Associated Press .
Democrats pointed to the Labor Department’s July job report, which showed the U.S. added only 1.8 million jobs in June, a much lower increase than in May or June, as proof that a larger relief package is needed.
Schools in New York may open, deterring Americans from being vaccinated
In other news COVID-19:
- New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said today that schools in the state could reopen for instruction when personal infection rates are low. The current rate of coronavirus in New York is 1%, and Cuomo said schools could open if the 14-day average stays positively below 5%. The decision will ultimately be up to school districts.
- In a new Gallup poll, 35% of Americans said they would not receive a COVID-19 vaccine with a Food and Drug Administration if it were available today at no cost. The willingness to vaccinate was lower among Republicans (47%) than Democrats (81%), and among middle-aged groups (59% among those between 50 and 64) compared to young adults (76% of adults aged 18 to 29) and elderly (70%).
