Oregon could see 4,800 new cases of COVID-19 a day in mid-July if trends continue, researchers warn.

New disease models released today by the Oregon Health Authority warn that daily COVID-19 infections could increase 20-fold in mid-July if trends continue.

The June 25 report from the Institute of Disease Modeling projects that, in the worst case, Oregon could see up to 4,850 daily cases of COVID before July 16. Even in a moderate scenario, daily cases are expected to rise to 910 cases per day. The current daily average for COVID cases is 180 per day.

Shortly after the models launched, OHA revealed new daily numbers: 250 new COVID cases today, 61 of them in Multnomah County. That is, once again, a daily log.

The state’s death count exceeded 200, reaching 202 with five new deaths reported today.

And the projections are much worse.

The projected growth, which the researchers called “exponential,” is based on the increase in cases that Oregon health officials have observed since Gov. Kate Brown allowed some companies to reopen county-by-county beginning May 15.

“The results suggest that transmission has increased since the reopening,” say the report’s authors. They said the cases would remain stable “only in our optimistic scenario, where the increases in recent diagnoses were supposed to be entirely due to more effective testing practices, rather than any increase in transmission. This assumption seems unlikely. Probable given that the positive test rate increased even as the tests expanded. The other scenarios show that increases in transmission, if sustained, would lead to exponential growth in new infections. “

The new model is the latest sign that reopening Oregon could be a public health disaster.

How WW reported Thursday, nearly half of the cases of COVID-19 in Multnomah County cannot be traced back to a source, which means the disease is likely more widespread than officials know. Meanwhile, Oregon’s most populous county only allowed its bars and restaurants to reopen, and journalists on the ground last weekend observed that some customers were not following social distancing rules, and some bars were not enforcing them.

Both the models and the actual case numbers pose a chilling prospect for business owners who have eagerly awaited the reopening of Portland: If these numbers hold up, the governor would have no choice but to block Oregon again, in midsummer.

For now, state officials have urged personal responsibility.

“Think carefully about your choice of activities, especially as we get closer to the July 4 vacation,” said Dr. Dean Sidelinger, the state epidemiologist. “Ask yourself: How can I reduce my risk and the risk it could pose to the people around me?”