Establishing a long-term sustainable international lunar presence in partnership with the private sector remains the primary focus on space exploration
For more than 50 years, our desire to explore space has led to new discoveries while providing a continuous stream of socio-economic benefits here on Earth. In addition, space exploration has increasingly established itself as a field of great strategic importance to governments around the world.
Driven by these multiple factors, global government investment in space exploration has grown in the past decade, driven by programs in leading countries and united by a growing number of actors. According to the latest Euroconsult research, Prospects for space exploration 2nd edition, the world’s government investment in space exploration amounted to almost $ 20 billion in 2019, increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 5% in the past five years. Thirty-one countries and space agencies lead this global investment and the United States represents 71% of it.
The strategic and geopolitical value of Earth’s natural satellite plays an important role behind the logic of returning to the moon, and is seen as a centerpiece for future manned missions from Mars. Additionally, space agencies share the goal of creating a sustainable lunar market environment, with cost-sharing, risk-sharing, and partnership as key goals for this new wave of lunar exploration.
Major space agencies also agree on the importance of maintaining a sustained presence in low Earth orbit. The International Space Station remains the world’s largest international cooperation program to date and the cornerstone of human space flight. Funding for the station is assured by all partners until at least 2024 and support has grown to extend operations until 2028 or 2030 in cooperation with the private sector. NASA’s future vision for LEO includes a sustainable market for commercial human space flight led by the United States. Meanwhile, China has increased investments to ensure the launch and completion of its LEO space station in the coming years. Meanwhile, astronomy and planetary missions to Mars and other destinations will continue to expand our scientific knowledge and technical capabilities.
To achieve these goals, world government investment in space exploration is forecast to increase to $ 30 billion by 2029. This forecast funding growth of around 50% in the next decade reflects government support for ambitious plans at large scale, which have begun to materialize with the moon as the central focus.
Space exploration not only attracts the interest of an increasing number of governments but also the private sector. From startups to large companies, players seek to exploit the commercial potential of space as the human and robotic presence expands beyond Earth. The next decade promises numerous commercial exploration initiatives, significantly impacting governments’ strategic planning and their space exploration agenda. New public-private contract schemes are being formed, reflecting the willingness of space agencies to act as a strategic partner and potential future client for commercial services to achieve a sustainable model for space exploration. However, while the enthusiasm for space exploration, and the moon in particular, is real, numerous missions remain uncertain due to a large number of external risk factors accentuated by the current global context.
The rise of exploration activities challenged by the current global context
The unprecedented context created by the COVID-19 pandemic is having repercussions of varying degrees throughout the world economy. The precise impact of the current economic and health crisis is, to this day, still difficult to predict accurately. The space sector has already experienced the direct effects of the blockade caused by the pandemic: space missions operated by employees at home, scientific missions on hold, postponed launches and manufacturing plans on hold are some of the examples that have challenged the daily activities of the space sector in recent months. However, as the world slowly returns to “normal” operations, space activities are also expected to do so. We’re experiencing, for example, the excitement of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, which includes the first manned launch to the International Space Station from the United States since 2011. This summer will also launch notable planetary exploration missions, if all goes according to as planned. – such as NASA’s Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover and the UAE’s Mars HOPE orbiter.
However, the space sector is not immune to the global international context and will experience the domino effect of economic consequences. How investment readjustments or new allocations will fully unfold remains uncertain, as countries around the world could experience increased pressure created by current turmoil. The impact of the pandemic is anticipated to vary greatly between countries and space verticals. Space exploration activities are long-term in nature and often experience inherent delays. While the current crisis may accentuate further potential delays, it is unlikely to disrupt governments’ long-term goals. Space exploration is high on the space agenda of major government space programs because of its ties to national strategic interests. Recent announcements, such as NASA contracts awarded to US companies for the development of the lunar human landing system, are some of the examples that reaffirm governments’ exploration ambitions despite current events. These milestones, however, are the result of strategic planning and budget allocations that space agencies have made in recent months.
The prospects for space exploration will also be greatly influenced by the steps taken by the US in the coming months, as the country remains to date the largest investor and a major driving force in defining the global strategy in space exploration. While the US exploration campaign from the moon to Mars has garnered more bipartisan support, the possible implications that a change of administration during the next election could have on exploration objectives remain debatable. Space exploration remains deeply tied to American politics, as each new administration defines new goals. The fact that lunar exploration has established itself as a key strategic asset for many governments around the world, including China, could be a key factor for the United States to maintain a lunar focus in its exploration strategy independent of possible political change. . However, even if the lunar target prevails in the United States, questions would arise about possible delays in the programs (such as their moon 2024 target or the lunar Gateway program), which could also be stressed due to the economic recession caused by the crisis. pandemic. A postponement of exploration projects could have a negative effect on the current momentum of exploration initiatives, with detrimental effects for international and private partners.
Within the private sector, the increase in private investment in the last decade has facilitated the emergence of new commercial exploration initiatives. Despite this increase, total private funding for space exploration remains, to date, moderate and investments are concentrated only in a fairly limited number of actors. Investors remain more reluctant to fund space exploration initiatives due to the inherent high risks and long-term vision for this field, a reluctance that may be further compounded by the current global context. The pandemic crisis could also accelerate the pre-existing fragile conditions of new companies, challenging their survival. Government support as a customer and partner will continue to be (even more) critical to the success of business initiatives.
Despite today’s global scene and the many challenges associated with it, the next decade may present opportunities for many. The world’s leading players are expected to strengthen their position, while new entrants may face greater difficulties in entering an increasingly competitive field. International collaboration and public-private cooperation are expected to continue to be consolidated as an essential requirement in the exploration strategy and the roadmap of public stakeholders to achieve a sustainable model for space exploration in the future.
Natalia Larrea He is Senior Advisor to Euroconsult and Editor-in-Chief of the “Prospects for Space Exploration” research.
This article originally appeared in the June 15, 2020 issue of SpaceNews magazine.
