No model can predict what will happen in an individual school. Infection rates vary from one neighborhood to another. Fate plays a role. And the effectiveness of measures such as wearing masks and social distance depends on the dynamics in each school, how consistent the students are and what activities are reduced.
Reopening a school has become a tangled logistic process around the world, as public officials, administrators, teachers, parents and students have to discuss together whether facial ield, ventilation, shift learning and virtually partially go. With the exception of New York City, most of the country’s school districts, due to stubborn virus rates and the concerns of teachers, their unions and some parents, have gone virtually all for most or all of the fall semester.
The reopening has been particularly prolific in New York, where individual classes have twice been delayed due to pressure from unions representing teachers and principals in the city by Mr. teachers and staff.
The results have been widely circulated as school systems around the world reopen. Some countries, such as Israel, have also seen explosive outbursts despite control measures. Others, such as Ireland and South Korea, have also kept schools open without major problems.
To simplify their modeling, the NYU team chose the benchmark for New York: Germany: Germany, which they said has a broad background in infection rates, efforts to reduce and equal levels of virtual education.
Alex Perkins, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Notre Dame who reviewed the analysis, said the use of Germany as a benchmark made sense, and that “what the model says about repeated testing is moving in the right direction.” He added: “But I think there’s more room to improve the model based on the transmission rate we actually see in New York schools.”
The city is balanced on the edge of the knife, the NYU researcher said. Classes can go ahead with rigorous testing and other measures, they said, but it would be impossible to completely avoid flare-ups.
