Crown-Europe: – – The death toll is likely to rise dramatically

The World Health Organization (WHO) is concerned about developments in Europe, where several countries have recently had to reintroduce far-reaching infection control measures in an attempt to overcome the burgeoning of infections.

The WHO has long warned that autumn and winter will increase mortality, and it believes we may see a four-fold increase in the number of deaths, compared to the death toll in April, if effective measures are not taken. to stop development.

– It’s going to get worse. In October and November, we will have more deaths, said Hans Kluge, WHO director for Europe, in September.

DOOR PROHIBITION: Also in France, the number of infections has taken a notable jump recently. In Paris and eight other French cities, a curfew has been imposed from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. Here, a restaurant in the French capital closes a few minutes before the curfew takes effect on October 17. Photo: Jeff Pachoud / AFP / NTB
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– Increases among the elderly

But despite the recent increase in the number of infection cases, also here in Norway, there seems to be no marked increase in deaths in most places.

– Currently, the average age of those infected in Europe in October is significantly lower than in March and April. This indicates that young people still dominate the infection statistics. But we see clear signs that they are now starting to infect older people, and that’s only when you want to see in the admission figures, deputy health director Espen Rostrup Nakstad tells Dagbladet.

INCREASE: Deputy Health Director Espen Rostrup Nakstad says there are clear signs that the infection is increasing among the elderly and that this is only when it will have an effect on the number of hospitalized patients. Photograph: Bjørn Langsem / Dagbladet
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Nakstad emphasizes that it often takes time before the infection spreads from younger age groups to the elderly, and that it again takes time before infected older people become so ill that they need to be hospitalized.

– Again, it takes more time before you get so sick that you end up in an intensive care unit or die. Two to three weeks in many cases. Therefore, the number of hospitalizations and deaths is likely to increase dramatically in Europe if the infection continues to increase in the future.

– Does this also apply to Norway?

– No, because we have low infection rates in Norway, it is not certain that we will get a dramatic increase in hospitalizations or deaths. But there is a risk that we can follow developments in Europe if we lose control.

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– Must be on guard

Chief Physician Preben Aavitsland of the National Institute of Public Health tells Dagbladet that there is no evidence that the virus has gotten milder, and also notes that low infection among the older generation is the cause of fewer deaths, despite the increased infection rates.

– If the epidemic increases and more older people are affected, we will also see more deaths. However, we believe that hospitals have improved even more in treating patients, so perhaps a few more will survive a serious process, he says.

Aavitsland believes that a large increase in the number of hospital admissions and deaths in Norway will be avoided, provided that the municipalities are in control.

– As long as we keep the epidemic under control, as now, there will be few deaths, but we must be vigilant all the time. Municipalities must monitor, detect outbreaks, take action and control the situation, he says.

Blood Red Europe: – Can be long-lasting

Increasing in the UK

One of the countries in Europe that has recently experienced a strong upward curve in terms of infected and hospitalized is the United Kingdom. Therefore, strict measures were introduced on Saturday for the 9 million inhabitants of London, as well as for another 2 million inhabitants in the north and north-west of England.

In the city of Manchester, among other places, warnings have been issued that they are running out of intensive care units.

As of Friday, the area already had 82 percent of intensive care units in use, both by critically ill corona patients and patients admitted for other reasons, writes The Guardian.

– Be tricked, like a canary in a coal mine.

A document accessed by the Manchester Evening News shows that if development continues, more intensive care units will be occupied and more hospital deaths will occur than in mid-April.

However, according to Nakstad, predictions of how many people will become infected and die from the coronavirus in the fall and winter are highly uncertain.

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– Today it is impossible to say how this will develop in Norway. What we can say is that the infection in Europe will likely spread from younger age groups to older age groups when the infection pressure is high enough. Simply because there is so much contact between age groups in a society, says the assistant director of FHI.

According to him, there are no absolute estimates of what autumn and winter will be like in Norway. The development of infection and mortality here will depend on how well the infection control measures work.

– We still have a chance to keep the infection low in Norway, Nakstad concludes.