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Vice Admiral Nils Andreas Stensønes, head of the Intelligence Service, says Russia will carry out the big exercise Zapad (“West”) during the fall, which will simulate a regional war against an opponent in the west.
The intelligence service looks at the next major Russian exercise in its public threat and risk assessment for 2021:
E-Chief Nils Andreas Stensønes in the former hunting lodge of National Commissioner Josef Terboven in Lutvann camp. Photo: Sverre Saabye / TV 2
“The last time Zapad was carried out, in 2017, the exercise involved a comprehensive strengthening of the Kola Peninsula. The reinforcement forces ensure that the Russian army can achieve local supremacy relatively quickly in a shorter period of time. “
The Vice Admiral says it will be up to the Norwegian authorities and NATO to take balancing measures to prevent Russia from taking control of our immediate areas.
– Ports on the back
– Then we finish at the end of the advanced lines. Today’s military power is not only aimed at war. Perhaps the most significant development in Russia is that they have built a flexible military force that can be used across the spectrum of conflict, to support their ambitions, Stensønes tells TV 2.
In recent years, Russia has become more and more assertive and has practiced further south and west than before. The strategy of strengthening Russia’s denial of the sea in the north has led to large danger areas being established in Norway’s economic zone.
The NATO defense alliance, for its part, has increased its activities in this area, to prevent Russia from dominating our immediate areas, says Stensønes.
“There is a clear will in NATO to comply with this development, to ensure that Russia does not dominate and set the terms in this area,” the intelligence chief told TV 2.
The security policy situation has changed in recent years, with increased tension and great power rivalry between Russia and the United States.
Russia views Western activity in the High North as a threat to military bases on the Kola Peninsula and Russian security, and Norway is perceived more as a NATO country than a neighbor, the Intelligence Service writes on the development of this year. Focus report.
Change of Russia since 2013
Since 2013, there has been a change in Russian military behavior, the Vice Admiral notes:
During exercise Zapad-2017, Iskander missiles were sent to Petsjengadalen. Photo: The intelligence service
- In 2013, Russia surrounded the British nuclear power and threatened it.
- In 2014, they demonstrated the will and ability to occupy Crimea and the Donbass.
- In 2017 and 2018, Russia simulated attacks on stations and air bases in Norway, and warships operating in Norwegian waters.
- In 2019, they demonstrated the ability and willingness to dominate the area as far as Greenland, Iceland and the UK, the so-called GIUK gap.
– This development is a Russian-driven increase in ambition to have control in our immediate areas, says the E-boss of TV 2.
During the big exercise Zapad-2017, Russia waged a large-scale war, according to the Estonian defense chief. NATO has stated that nuclear weapons were also part of the exercise in which Russian forces trained in a major intergovernmental conflict.
The Baltic Fleet is testing a cruise missile during exercise Zapad-2017. Photo: mil.ru
– The Zapad exercise is a broad exercise where they demonstrate their total capacity in one area. Hopefully it will happen that they take control of larger areas, dominate further and move larger forces, says Stensønes of this fall’s exercise.
Elite forces
Since 2013, according to the Intelligence Service, it has become part of the normal scenario in the north to see transfers and training with elite forces that can be transferred very quickly and operate in arctic conditions in collaboration with local units.
– They haven’t announced exactly what Zapad will be about, but operations along the Norwegian coast and into England have been a pattern for many years. It will not be surprising if it is also part of Zapad, says the intelligence chief.
The electronic service says that a corresponding reinforcement is also expected during the fall exercise.
– So the challenge is that Russia gives a small warning about the details and where it happens. It is difficult to predict exactly how it will go. But we expect a great transfer of forces and the ability to try to dominate the area beyond our own borders, Nils Andreas Stensønes tells TV 2.
