[ad_1]
With vaccines on the way and fewer infection control measures, economists at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris are finally a bit more optimistic.
“For the first time since the pandemic began, there is now hope for a better future,” they wrote in December’s preliminary report on future economic prospects.
OECD experts praise the authorities and central banks, noting that global economic activity has recovered rapidly thanks to certain measures by the authorities.
The corona pandemic has hit parts of the business community hard, as well as many stores. Here from Belfast. (Photo: PAUL FAITH / AFP / NTB Scanpix)
The catastrophic rise in unemployment has been reversed and most businesses have survived, albeit somewhat damaged, says the OECD, stressing that things could have gone much worse quickly. At the same time, they emphasize that the pandemic has affected differently, tourism, the hotel and restaurant industry have been particularly affected, while unskilled workers in the service sector have largely lost their jobs or been laid off.
The OECD believes that global gross domestic product (GDP) will decline by 4.2% in 2020 and then increase by 4.2% in 2021 and a further 3.7% in 2022.
In September, the OECD forecast a 4.5% drop in GDP in 2020 and a 5.0% rise in 2021.
Norway in a good position
The OECD believes that Norway, with a sensible use of oil money and zero interest rates, has borne the brunt of the worst effects of the pandemic.
But the OECD warns that the burden of private debt and house prices are declining, and economists point out that the uncertain evolution of oil prices could have unintended consequences.
At the same time, the OECD notes that the Norwegian welfare state has limited the damaging socio-economic effects of the pandemic that has been seen in many other places, a stabilizing factor in a turbulent time. Although the service sector with low-skilled workers has been disproportionately affected, also in Norway.
Looking ahead, the OECD believes that gradual improvement is in sight, both economically and in employment.
The OECD encourages the Norwegian authorities to help industries that have been particularly affected by the crisis to survive. Economists in Paris encourage Norway to take advantage of the comparative advantage of an economy stronger than most others to invest long-term and green.
“Norway is in a relatively good position to deal with future uncertainty,” believes the OECD.
The OECD estimates that the mainland economy in Norway will contract by 3.2% this year, after a growth of 2.3% in 2019. For 2021, the estimate is plus 3.1% and plus 1.4% in 2022.(Terms)Copyright Dagens Næringsliv AS and / or our suppliers. We would like you to share our cases via a link, which leads directly to our pages. Copying or other use of all or part of the content can only be done with written permission or as permitted by law. For more terms, see here.
