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Since the borders with Sweden were closed practically in mid-March, the debate over the effect of Swedish trade has heated up.
Both NHO and the Virke trade organization claim that the state makes billions from increased trade in Norway.
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– We do not have an exact figure, but it is certainly between 10 and 20 billion crowns in increased revenue for the state. The increase in VAT revenue on beer sales is about five billion, says Virke’s chief commercial officer, Harald J. Andersen.
There has been a lot of uncertainty about the extent of the trade. Based on quarterly surveys, Statistics Norway has estimated that Norwegians trade with Swedes for NOK 16 billion over the course of a year.
At the same time, the Swedish trade organization Svensk Handel has estimated the sum at around NOK 25 billion, and that was in 2015.
I don’t know the scope
The Finance Ministry admits that the Norwegian authorities are unaware of the extent of Swedish trade.
– Now I am not going to judge which is the correct number here, but we can hope that the situation of the crown can help us to get a better overview of the total scope, says Secretary of State Magnus Thue (H) in the Ministry of Finance .
In the fall of 2018, the government announced that a border trade barometer would be implemented precisely to gain this insight. This is not the case currently, and the Virke business organization reacts strongly to the fact that it has been so long.
– In fact, we were promised this information in the Trade White Paper in Fall 2018, but it is still conspicuous by its absence. As far as we can understand, this is an unwillingness on the part of the government to set aside money and develop the barometer, says Andersen.
This is rejected by conservatives.
“I don’t agree with that at all. We have now completed a pilot, and then we will see if we continue this permanently,” says Thue.
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– Fees go against their purpose
Statistics Norway conducted a pilot on a comprehensive border barometer for September 2019. It showed that Norwegians traded for around NOK 2 billion project in Sweden, just this month, spread over 1.2 million trips across the border.
– More than half of the shopping basket were products that we want Ola and Kari to consume less, such as alcohol, tobacco, snus, sweets and mineral water, says Virke’s director.
The high taxes on these products in Norway are justified when it comes to public health. Both Virke and NHO believe that the tariffs go against their purpose, if it is the case that Norwegians buy much more in Sweden than they would have bought in Norway.
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– When we sat in the car and headed to Sweden, we bought more than we would have otherwise, and then we consume more. And then the tax level actually goes against its purpose from a public health perspective, Andersen says.
I do not know the consumption
The Finance Ministry does not have an overview of the business and consumer habits of Norwegians shopping in Sweden, but denies that the level of tax goes against their purpose.
– We don’t have a figure for that, but higher taxes will likely lead to lower consumption. There are probably those who hoard, but that is going to lead to higher consumption in general, I don’t know of anything that indicates, says Secretary of State Thue.
– Is it complicated or requires a lot of money to start a barometer of border trade of this type?
– Of course it takes some money, but now we have to look at the surveys that have already been done and see what added value such a barometer of limits can provide.
